SpaceX Lockup Expiry Set to Double Public Shares and Shift Nasdaq Weight

On Thursday, SpaceX will unlock up to 911.5 million Class A shares, more than doubling the number of shares available for public trading. The company’s IPO on June 12 was the largest in history, yet less than 5 % of total shares were initially offered. The staggered, tiered calendar means that after this first release, a series of unlocks this year could bring more than 5 billion of the 7.571 billion Class A shares into the market. Musk’s own holdings—over 40 % of company value—remain locked until one year after the IPO.

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SpaceX’s stock (SPCX) fell almost 14 % on Wednesday, closing at $108.27 per share, marking its second-worst day on record. The price is down roughly 50 % from the record high reached on June 16 and 20 % below the IPO target of $135 per share. Analysts note that larger capital expenditures on artificial intelligence, disclosed in Tuesday’s earnings report, have added to investor unease.

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SpaceX currently carries about 1 % weighting in the Nasdaq 100. With the Thursday unlock, the company’s market-value share could rise above 3.5 % after the index’s September rebalance, according to TD Securities. A higher weighting would increase SpaceX’s influence on the index’s performance.

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• “You have a few different things triggering volatile action in the name, all happening at the same time,” — Ryan Lee, senior vice president for product and strategy at Direxion.

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• “An influx of new shares can weigh on any stock in the short term, but that doesn’t change the underlying picture,” — Justus Parmar, founder and CEO at Fortuna Investments and a SpaceX investor.

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Further unlocks are scheduled throughout the year, with additional releases expected in 2027 for executive holdings. While the immediate influx may pressure the share price, commentators stress that long-term valuation will hinge on SpaceX’s business performance and Elon Musk’s execution of the company’s broader vision.

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