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Full Breakdown

Lithuania Warns Russia May Use Captured Ukrainian Drones for False-Flag Attacks on Baltic Infrastructure

8/6/2026, 8:50:23 PM

Core Event

Lithuanian defence minister Robertas Kaunas announced on August 6, 2026 that intelligence suggests Russia is considering using captured Ukrainian-made drones to conduct kinetic attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, potentially staged as false-flag operations.

Background & Context

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, drones have repeatedly entered NATO airspace over the Baltic states, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland. Lithuanian officials link several incursions to Russian electronic-warfare systems that jam or spoof GPS, causing Ukrainian drones to deviate. The Baltic states and Ukraine deny that Ukrainian forces deliberately use Baltic airspace for attacks on Russia.

Timeline

  • July 30, 2026 – Kaunas warned that President Vladimir Putin was seeking a new escalation, naming the Baltic region and Poland as “the closest targets.”
  • June 18, 2026 – Lithuania’s armed forces began assisting the Public Security Service in guarding strategic sites, including the Klaipeda LNG terminal and the LitPol Link electricity interconnection.
  • August 6, 2026 – Kaunas confirmed the assessment that Russia may employ captured Ukrainian drones for false-flag strikes.
  • August 19, 2026 (scheduled) – The heightened security regime protecting the identified facilities is extended at least until this date.

Data & Statistics

  • Lithuanian forces have deployed up to 30 soldiers, transport vehicles and a crewed vessel to protect the Klaipeda LNG terminal, the LitPol Link interconnection, a transformer substation in Alytus, and the Kruonis Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Plant.
  • The security extension covers these sites through August 19, 2026.

Official Statements & Responses

  • Defence minister Robertas Kaunas said the assessment shows Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones to carry out “unconventional kinetic attacks” on Baltic critical infrastructure, aiming to obscure responsibility.
  • President Gitanas Nauseda previously warned that intelligence indicated Russian plans to attack energy and transport infrastructure, prompting tightened security.
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed earlier Lithuanian claims as “scare stories” intended to justify militarisation against Russia.

Verbatim Quotes

  • “We are talking about a false flag operation, using a false Ukrainian drone ... One of the goals is for NATO to waver and decrease support to Ukraine. I can assure this will not happen,” — Robertas Kaunas
  • “We have data that Russia is considering unconventional kinetic attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. Russia is likely to use Ukrainian production drones to do so,” — Kaunas

What’s Next

Lithuanian authorities will maintain the reinforced guard of the listed energy and transport facilities until at least August 19, 2026, and continue monitoring for any drone activity that could indicate a false-flag operation.