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Talarico Leads Paxton by 2 Points in Texas Senate Poll

8/6/2026

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Talarico Leads

A Barbara Jordan poll released on August 4 2026 shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by two points in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
These results note Paxton’s low favorability and scandals, including his impeachment for corruption and a divorce filed on “biblical grounds,” raising voter concern.
57% of likely voters view Paxton unfavorably, versus 47% for Talarico.
Among Hispanic voters, Talarico leads Paxton with 59% support (Fox News), an 18-point margin.

Right

Talarico Leads

A poll released August 4 2026 shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by two points in the Texas Senate race.
Paxton’s campaign dismissed the poll as irrelevant, with adviser Maddux saying only the November 3 election matters, while Kalshi odds show Paxton ahead 53%-47%.
The survey interviewed 1,200 voters July 27-30 in Spanish, margin of error ±2.83 points.
59% said Paxton lacks character to serve, while 47% called Talarico too extreme.

Center

Talarico Leads

A poll released on August 4 2026 shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by two points in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
Talarico raised $30 million in second-quarter fundraising, more than triple Paxton’s $9 million.
The poll’s 1,200 likely voters gave Talarico 47% support, Paxton 45%, with 6% undecided.
A survey of 500 Black Texans found 79% would vote Talarico, 12% Paxton.

History

Historical Context

Democrats controlled the Texas Senate from 1872 until the 1994 election, when a new legislative map forced all 31 seats to be contested. Republicans captured 14 seats to the Democrats’ 17 and won a December runoff, securing the chamber’s first Republican majority since Reconstruction. The shift, part of the 1994 Republican Revolution that also elected Governor George W. Bush, underlies today’s tight Senate contests.

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Talarico Leads

A Barbara Jordan poll released on August 4 2026 shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by two points in the Texas U.S. Senate race.
These results note Paxton’s low favorability and scandals, including his impeachment for corruption and a divorce filed on “biblical grounds,” raising voter concern.
57% of likely voters view Paxton unfavorably, versus 47% for Talarico.
Among Hispanic voters, Talarico leads Paxton with 59% support (Fox News), an 18-point margin.

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