Emerson College Poll Finds Iowa Governor Race Tight, Senate Race Slightly Ahead for Republican

A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 712 likely Iowa voters, conducted in early August 2026, shows Democratic state auditor Rob Sand leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn for governor with 48 % to 43 %, while 7 % remain undecided. In the open Senate seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, Republican Ashley Hinson holds a narrow 48 % lead over Democrat Josh Turek, who has 45 % support, with 6 % undecided.

Emerson College Polling

Independent voters are a decisive bloc: they favor Sand by a 26-point margin (58 % to 32 %) and Turek by an 11-point margin (49 % to 38 %). About one-in-ten voters who backed former President Donald Trump in 2024 say they would support Sand. Trump’s job approval among Iowans stands at 43 % with 51 % disapproval. Governor Kim Reynolds registers a 44 % approval rating and 47 % disapproval. The poll also notes that the economy is the top issue for 38 % of voters, followed by healthcare (19 %) and threats to democracy (11 %).

Emerson College PollingThe Hill

The Cook Political Report classifies the governor’s contest as a “toss-up” and the Senate race as “lean Republican,” noting a recent shift toward Democrats after Turek’s June primary win. Decision Desk HQ also labels the Senate race a “toss-up,” with Hinson narrowly favored over Turek. Both analyst assessments are based on the same Emerson poll data.

The HillEmerson College Polling

• Governor: Sand 48 % / Lahn 43 % / Undecided 7 %

Emerson College Polling

• Senate: Hinson 48 % / Turek 45 % / Undecided 6 %

The Hill

• Independent voter split: Sand 58 % / Lahn 32 %; Turek 49 % / 38 %

The Hill

• Trump approval: 43 % / 51 % disapproval

Emerson College Polling

• Reynolds approval: 44 % / 47 % disapproval

Emerson College Polling

“Driving Democratic competition in the Iowa general election are independent voters, who break for Sand by a 26-point margin, 58% to 32%, and Turek by an 11-point margin, 49% to 38%,” — Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling

The Hill