Story perspectives

WeatherNext AI Extends Cyclone Forecasts 15 Days, Outperforms Ops

8/6/2026

Summary

Story summary

Researchers introduced WeatherNext Cyclones (WN-C), an AI model that generates global tropical-cyclone track, intensity and wind-radius ensembles.
WN-C can produce ensembles of up to 1,000 members extending 15 days ahead.
Tests on 2023-2025 cyclones showed WN-C leads leading operational models by at least one day.
Adding WN-C to a weighted-average consensus ensemble markedly raised overall forecast skill, aiding forecasters and improving emergency planning.

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Story summary

Researchers introduced WeatherNext Cyclones (WN-C), an AI model that generates global tropical-cyclone track, intensity and wind-radius ensembles.
WN-C can produce ensembles of up to 1,000 members extending 15 days ahead.
Tests on 2023-2025 cyclones showed WN-C leads leading operational models by at least one day.
Adding WN-C to a weighted-average consensus ensemble markedly raised overall forecast skill, aiding forecasters and improving emergency planning.