Mississippi Senate Race Becomes a Wildcard in the 2026 Midterms

Democratic district-attorney Scott Colom is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for Mississippi’s Class II Senate seat in the November 2026 general election. The race is viewed as a potential “wildcard” that could affect the Senate balance, where Democrats need four more seats for a majority.

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Mississippi has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1940s. Hyde-Smith, appointed and then elected in 2018, aligns with former President Donald Trump and has supported tariffs that raised gas prices for state farmers. Colom, a Black candidate, would be the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats are targeting every possible seat.

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• Fundraising (June 2026): Hyde-Smith – $3.8 M raised, $2.5 M remaining; Colom – $2.8 M raised, $850 K remaining.

Hartford Courant

• Individual contributions: Colom leads with $1.9 M vs. Hyde-Smith’s $1.8 M; about $536 K of Colom’s money comes from Mississippi donors.

Hartford Courant

• Demographics: Black residents make up roughly 37 % of the state’s 2.95 M population and about a third of the typical November electorate. Black voters historically support Democrats by a large margin, while white voters favor Republicans by at least 4-to-1.

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• Past margins: Hyde-Smith won the 2018 runoff by 7 pts, the 2020 rematch by 10 pts, and trailed Trump’s 2020 margin over Biden by 16 pts.

Hartford Courant

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hosted a fundraiser for Colom, signaling national investment. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland campaigned in Mississippi, emphasizing the need to protect every Senate seat. A Senate Majority PAC spokesperson said the race is “watched closely” because low media costs allow late-stage ad buys. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned that spreading Democratic resources thin could hinder their ability to flip the necessary seats.

Hartford Courant

• “We can win here, and we’re going to,” — Scott Colom, Democratic nominee

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• “We can’t spare a single seat,” — Angela Alsobrooks, Maryland Sen.

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No public polling data have been released for the Mississippi race, leaving analysts without concrete metrics on voter preferences or the impact of increased Black turnout. While fundraising totals are known, the timing and sources of potential late-stage national super-PAC contributions remain unclear.

Associated Press

The November 2026 election will determine whether Colom can close the historic partisan gap in Mississippi. If no candidate reaches a majority, state law mandates a runoff, which could further complicate Senate control calculations. National Democratic committees and Republican super-PACs are expected to assess the race in the coming months and may allocate additional resources based on emerging voter-turnout data and fundraising trends.

Associated Press