Iran Leverages Strait of Hormuz Amid Prolonged U.S. Conflict

Iran’s leadership asserts that its de-facto control of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes—has become a strategic lever in the ongoing war with the United States. Tehran is negotiating a deal with Oman that would formalize Iranian management of the waterway, conditional on the United States lifting its blockade. The arrangement could allow Iran to charge fees and would cement a shift from an open international passage to a sovereign-controlled chokepoint.

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The conflict began after a February airstrike campaign by the United States and Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader and other senior officials. President Donald Trump initially predicted a swift resolution, but the war has persisted for months, prompting both sides to adjust tactics. Iran’s joint military command has labeled the strait an “unbreakable red line,” and Iranian officials repeatedly state that the waterway will not revert to open navigation. Simultaneously, the United States has warned that reopening the strait by force could require ground troops and risk higher civilian casualties.

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• The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 % of global oil and gas shipments.

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• Iran’s economy faces triple-digit food inflation and a currency crisis that sparked the largest anti-government protests in the nation’s 47-year history.

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• At least 26 people have been executed in connection with the January protests, according to Amnesty International.

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• China, a major oil buyer from Iran, called in May for “normal and safe passage” through the strait.

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• President Donald Trump has alternated between threatening further escalation and asserting that diplomatic talks are progressing. He argues that continued U.S.

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• Iranian advisers emphasize that control of the strait provides leverage for any future nuclear negotiations.

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• “For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian Gulf,” — Mostafa Najafi, a Tehran-based security analyst

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• “The atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran’s interests,” — Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst

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• “I never thought, unless they could be completely armed, I never thought they’d have that kind of uprising, because these people are violent,” — Mr. Trump, president

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Negotiators are working toward a trilateral arrangement involving the United States, Iran, and Oman to restart commercial shipping through the strait. The United States faces domestic pressure ahead of the November congressional elections, while Iran’s leadership continues to use the strait as a domestic legitimacy tool. Analysts note that Iran’s strategy may be unsustainable if economic collapse deepens, suggesting that a diplomatic settlement could become inevitable before the next U.S. election cycle.

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