Hawaii Democratic Primary: Ed Case vs. Jarrett Keohokalole

On August 8, voters in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District chose between incumbent U.S. Representative Ed Case, 73, and state Senator Jarrett Keohokalole, 43. Case, a moderate on the House Appropriations Committee, has held the seat since 2019 (and previously from 2002-2007). Keohokalole, a progressive, argues the incumbent is out-of-step with the party base and calls for expanded government health care and a more critical stance toward U.S. aid to Israel.

Reuters

The race mirrors a national trend of younger, left-leaning challengers targeting long-standing Democratic incumbents. Hawaii’s district is safely Democratic, making the primary the decisive contest.

Jewish Insider

• July 7-8 – Blueprint Polling released a survey showing Case ahead 33 % to 25 % with 42 % undecided.

Newsweek

• July 24 – An internal poll indicated Keohokalole leading Case by seven points.

Jewish Insider

• August 8 – Primary election held.

Newsweek

• Polling: The July 7-8 Blueprint poll placed Case ahead by eight points (33 % vs 25 %). The July 24 internal poll showed Keohokalole ahead 47 % to 38 %; Downballot reported a similar margin. Prediction Edge listed a 56 % chance of a Case victory versus 48 % for Keohokalole.

Newsweek

• Fundraising: Both campaigns raised roughly $1 million. The FEC recorded a $75,000 digital ad purchase by the super-PAC Future Progress supporting Keohokalole; no comparable third-party spend was reported for Case.

Jewish Insider

• Voter Turnout: About 179,000 ballots had been cast by the Tuesday before the primary, with less than 2 % of 2024 primary voters voting in person, reflecting Hawaii’s mail-ballot system.

Newsweek

Case emphasized his seniority, telling Hawaii Public Radio, “seniority matters,” and highlighted his role in securing federal aid for the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2023 Maui wildfires, and the Red Hill water-contamination crisis. He defended his vote for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, saying it provided multiple ways to demonstrate citizenship.

Morning Digest: Another 70-something House Democrat could lose on Saturday

Keohokalole positioned himself to the left on Middle-East policy, indicating he would have supported a House amendment to end aid to Israel that garnered over 100 Democratic votes. He criticized Case’s contributions from AIPAC and defense contractors and argued the incumbent has not addressed the “national crisis” sparked by President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Jewish Insider

Polling presents divergent pictures: the early July Blueprint survey favored Case, while the later July 24 internal poll and Downballot’s report favored Keohokalole. Prediction Edge’s model still gave Case a modest edge. No definitive data on undecided voter behavior or on-the-ground turnout patterns have been released, leaving the final impact of these gaps uncertain.

Newsweek

• “I think we have a very, very good shot, as good a shot as all the work I’ve done in Hawaii,” — Martin Hamburger, veteran Democratic ad maker

Jewish Insider

• “I haven’t read or heard Ed Case say ‘I opposed the war in Iran and we need to stop the fighting now,’” — Jarrett Keohokalole, media consultant

Jewish Insider

The primary winner will face Republican Adriel Lam, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary, in the November general election. Hawaii continues to conduct elections primarily by mail, with ballots mailed to all registered voters.

Newsweek