Full Breakdown
Israel’s 2026 Election: Polls, Seats and the Coalition Puzzle
8/9/2026, 7:56:53 PM
Core Event – Latest Seat Projections Ahead of October 27
July-August polls show a tight race for the 120-seat Knesset. The Globes “poll of polls” gives Likud 25 seats and the new Yashar party 23. The i24NEWS/Direct Polls (Aug 6) puts Likud at 28 and Yashar at 23; the Jerusalem Post poll lists Likud at 22 and Yashar at 23. Across the surveys, the opposition bloc (excluding Arab parties) ranges from 49-56 seats, the coalition bloc from 49-58, and Arab parties from 10-13. No poll shows a clear majority, making coalition talks decisive.
Background & Context – Netanyahu’s Governance and Voter Concerns
Since 2022, Netanyahu’s government has focused on judicial reform and expanding ultra-Orthodox influence. The reform, led by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, was stalled by protests but resurfaced late in the term. Security debates remain, though recent polling places governance and judicial issues above security concerns.
Data & Statistics – What the Numbers Show
| Poll source | Likud seats | Yashar seats | Coalition bloc | Opposition bloc (incl. Arab) | Arab parties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Globes (Oct 27) | 25 | 23 | 54 | 56 (plus 11 Arab) | 11 |
| i24NEWS/Direct (Aug 6) | 28 | 23 | 58 | 49 | 13 |
| Jerusalem Post | 22 | 23 | 49 | 57 (plus 10 Arab) | 10 |
Support for including the Ra’am Arab party in a coalition is low (?20 %). Prime-minister suitability (Jerusalem Post) shows Naftali Bennett at 43 % versus Netanyahu at 40 %; Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 47 % to 38 %.
Official Statements & Responses
- Likud reserved eight top slots for direct selection by Netanyahu ahead of the August 17 primary.
- Yashar vows to exclude Arab parties from any governing coalition, limiting its path to the 61-seat threshold.
- President Isaac Herzog warned of potential election-day violence and intimidation.
- Yoav Segalovitz, former head of Lahav 433, will run second on Ra’am’s list; polls have not yet shown an impact.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Likud seat projections vary from 22 to 28, altering coalition arithmetic.
- Coalition bloc size ranges from 49 to 58 seats, affecting the need for Arab partners.
- Arab party representation is reported as 10, 11, or 13 seats.
- Public support for Ra’am inclusion stays around 20 %, but opposition percentages differ across surveys.
No poll clarifies whether Segalovitz’s move to Ra’am will shift voter behavior, leaving uncertainty for coalition calculations.
What’s Next – Upcoming Electoral Milestones
- September 9 – Deadline for parties to lock final candidate lists.
- August 17 – Likud’s internal primary.
- October 27 – Election day, the first national vote since the October 7 massacre.
The Knesset’s final composition will depend on how opposition parties align, whether Eisenkot sustains his surge, and the role Arab parties play in coalition building.
