Race to Lead the United Nations: Rebeca Grynspan Leads Early Straw Poll as Uganda and South Africa Mobilize Support

The United Nations will select a new secretary-general to succeed António Guterres, whose second term ends on 31 December 2026. Under the informal tradition of regional rotation, the next holder is expected to come from Latin America, and member states are lobbying for the first female secretary-general. A secret straw poll of the Security Council on 30 July recorded ten “encourage” votes for Costa Rican diplomat Rebeca Grynspan, nine for Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, and two “encourage” votes for Uganda’s Olara Otunnu. The process is slated to conclude in October, after the Council recommends a single candidate to the 193-member General Assembly.

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid

Rebeca Grynspan, former vice-president of Costa Rica and head of UNCTAD, entered the race as a continuity candidate with tacit support from the outgoing secretary-general. Uganda’s veteran diplomat Olara Otunnu, a former UN Under-Secretary-General and architect of the straw-poll mechanism, is campaigning on institutional reform, climate action and AI governance. South Africa has signaled a preference for a Latin-American, female candidate, aligning with the rotation norm.

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid

• 30 July – First informal Security Council straw poll (Grynspan: 10 encourage; Otunnu: 2 encourage, 5 discourage, 8 no opinion).

The Guardian

• 19 August – Otunnu’s delegation meets UN General Assembly members in New York.

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid

• 20 August – Same delegation meets the Security Council.

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• 21 August – Denmark, holding the Council presidency, plans a second informal poll.

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid

• October – Expected date for the Security Council to forward a single recommendation.

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• 31 December 2026 – End of Guterres’s term; the new secretary-general begins a four-year mandate.

SA endorses Rebeca Grynspan for UN Secretary-General – Channel Africa

• Grynspan received ten “encourage” votes, one “discourage” vote and four “no opinion” votes in the July poll.

The Guardian

• Otunnu recorded two “encourage” votes, five “discourage” votes and eight “no opinion” votes.

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid

• UNCTAD’s February 2026 report estimated that the Palestinian economy lost $212.2 billion (constant 2015 dollars) from 2000-2024, roughly twenty times the 2024 Palestinian GDP.

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• In November 2025, Grynspan noted Gaza’s GDP per capita had fallen to $161 per person per year.

The Guardian

Uganda’s Ambassador Adonia Ayebare announced that Otunnu and former Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda were en route to New York for high-level engagements with member states and the Security Council. The United States has expressed opposition to former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, alleging she was soft on China’s human-rights record.

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid

• “It is common practice that candidates visit different countries to lobby and engage,” — Co-operation Minister Ronald Lamola

SA weighs support for Costa Rica’s Grynspan in UN Secretary-General race – Channel Africa

• “Happy to announce that Dr Olara Otunnu, Uganda’s candidate for United Nations Secretary General, accompanied by former Prime Minister, the Head of the campaign, are enroute to New York,” — Adonia Ayebare, ambassador

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid

Denmark’s August 21 informal poll will gauge shifting support ahead of the October Security Council recommendation. Candidates must secure at least nine positive votes and avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members before the General Assembly can endorse the nominee by the end of the year. The outcome will determine whether the UN secures its first female secretary-general and how the organization positions itself amid ongoing debates over multilateral legitimacy.

Otunnu Heads to New York as Uganda Intensifies UNSG Bid