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July CPI Forecast 3.4% as Fed Holds, Hike Odds Slip

8/9/2026

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Story summary
  • The United States will release July CPI on August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET, forecasting 3.4% YoY and 2.5% core.
  • The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged in July, though three of twelve officials backed a hike.
  • LSEG data show September hike odds fell to about 44%, down from 67% a week earlier.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.64% after briefly hitting its highest level since January 2025.