China’s Oil-Import Rebound Amid the Hormuz Crisis

In July 2026 China’s crude-oil imports rose to roughly 35.7 million metric tons (? 8.4 million barrels per day) after a brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in late June. Imports had fallen to a near-decade low of 29.3 million tons in June. By August, analysts expect the rebound to stall as the waterway closed again and oil prices climbed.

WION

The Iran-Saudi conflict that began in early 2026 made the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20 million barrels per day flow—effectively impassable. Gulf governments diverted an extra 5 million barrels per day via pipelines, while the United States and Japan released emergency stockpiles. China relied on its strategic reserves—estimated at 1.4 billion barrels at the end of 2025—to weather the shock.

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• Mid-June 2026 – A U.S.–Iran memorandum temporarily reopened the strait.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Stall China's Oil Rebound

• Early July 2026 – New attacks forced the waterway shut; transits fell to two vessels on a Wednesday versus a pre-war baseline of 130-140 daily.

CNBC

• July 2026 – Imports climbed 22 % from June, reaching 35.73 million tons.

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• Late July 2026 – Analysts warned the rebound could be fading.

CNBC

• August 2026 – Forecasts project volumes to level off or decline as refiners draw down inventories.

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• June 2026: 29.3 million tons (? 5.9 million b/d), a 41 % YoY drop, the lowest since October 2016.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Stall China's Oil Rebound

• July 2026: 35.73 million tons (? 8.4 million b/d), a 22 % rise from June but still 24 % below the same month a year earlier.

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• Strategic reserves: ? 1.4 billion barrels (U.S. EIA, Dec 2025).

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• Transit volume: 2 vessels on a Wednesday versus 8 the day before; pre-war average 130-140 vessels per day (Kpler).

CNBC

• Russian oil substitution: Sinopec purchased 30-40 cargoes of ESPO crude (? 241,000-320,000 b/d) for July-September, about 5-6 % of its 5.2 million-b/d capacity.

Reuters

China’s stockpile lets it act as a “swing importer,” buying when prices are favorable and sitting out when the market tightens. This helped blunt a price shock that could have pushed crude above $200 per barrel. The limited rebound also indicates weak domestic demand, limiting how quickly China will re-engage even if Hormuz reopens.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Stall China's Oil Rebound

• Emma Li, Vortexa Analytics: “Sinopec's crude demand appears to have bottomed out following the easing of fuel export restrictions, but the recovery remains selective.”

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• Ye Lin, Rystad Energy: Chinese buyers moved “opportunistically” during the brief easing, locking in discounted cargoes.

WION

• Import volume percentages: CNBC reports a 24 % YoY decline for July, while Oilprice cites a 22 % increase from June. Both agree the absolute level remains well below pre-war norms.

Oil Price

• Future trajectory: Capital Economics forecasts a possible decline in August, whereas Rystad Energy expects continued inflows. Definitive August data are not yet available.

CNBC

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, China will rely on reserves and alternative supplies such as Russian ESPO crude. A de-escalation could open a price window for bulk purchases, but refiners have signaled a preference for inventory drawdowns over new imports. These dynamics will shape global oil prices through the remainder of 2026.

CNBC