Full Breakdown
Nigel Farage’s Restore Party Struggles to Convert Former Reform Voters in Greater Manchester By-Election
8/10/2026, 11:44:04 AM
Core Event: Makerfield By-Election Outcome
In the early hours after the Makerfield by-election, Labour’s Andy Burnham secured a decisive victory that exceeded poll expectations. The Reform Party, which had privately accepted a likely defeat more than a month earlier, finished roughly 9,000 votes behind Burnham despite a higher turnout. Nigel Farage’s Restore party, which positioned itself as the “challenger party to the left,” failed to capitalize on the result, prompting Farage to direct a blunt message to the party’s 3,000 supporters urging them to reconsider their vote.
Background & Context: A Fragmented Radical Right
The by-election followed a period of internal turbulence on Britain’s far-right. Rupert Lowe, founder of Restore, recently proposed an electoral pact that would see Restore stand down in favour of Reform, provided Reform adopted three policy conditions: reinstating the death penalty, banning halal and kosher meat, and promoting a more ethno-centric conception of British identity. The proposal assumes that Restore’s electorate would readily return to Reform, an assumption that the Makerfield result disproved.
Data & Statistics: Vote Shifts and Poll Findings
- YouGov polling indicates that just over one-in-ten voters who backed Reform in the 2024 general election now favour Restore.
- Approximately 36 % of Restore voters say they would consider voting for Reform, while half of the current Restore vote is traced back to former Reform supporters.
- Between 10 % and 15 % of 2024 Reform voters hold a negative view of Farage, according to various pollsters.
- In the Greater Manchester mayoral contest, Labour’s Bev Craig captured second-preference votes amounting to 73 % of the total Green and Liberal Democrat ballots, whereas Reform candidate Sian Astley secured only 52 % of second-preference votes from Tory and Restore supporters.
- National data suggest that as many as 50 % of Conservative voters would be unwilling to support Reform.
Official Statements & Responses
Farage addressed Restore’s base directly, describing the party as the primary challenger to left-wing forces and urging supporters to rethink their allegiance. He also clarified that his criticism was not aimed at Burnham, whom he acknowledged as a popular local mayor.
Lowe’s pact offer, outlined in public statements, stipulated the three policy conditions above and framed the alliance as a strategic move to consolidate the right-wing vote.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polling on the extent of Reform voters’ hostility toward Farage varies: some outlets report a 10 % negative view, while others cite figures as high as 15 %. The precise proportion of Restore voters open to a Reform alliance also lacks consensus, with YouGov providing a 36 % figure but no comparable data from other pollsters. Additionally, the impact of second-preference voting on future contests remains uncertain, as the by-election provides only a single data point.
The Makerfield by-election underscores the difficulty of uniting Britain’s radical right under a single banner. Despite a high-profile offer of cooperation and shared policy goals, Restore’s electorate appears resistant to returning to Reform, suggesting that ideological distinctions—particularly on issues such as capital punishment and cultural identity—remain decisive for this voter segment.
