Full Breakdown
Max Miller Stays in Race Amid Abuse Allegations, Turning Ohio’s 7th District Into a Toss-Up
8/12/2026, 7:56:24 AM
The Race Turns Competitive
Republican Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) has refused to withdraw from the November 2026 election for Ohio’s 7th Congressional District despite the deadline passing on Monday. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added his Union-ironworker opponent Brian Poindexter to its “Red to Blue” program, unlocking additional fundraising and strategic support. The Cook Political Report moved the race from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-Up,” and recent polling shows Poindexter leading Miller by eight points (54 %–46 %).
Background & Context
Miller, a scion of one of Ohio’s wealthiest families, won reelection in 2024 by about 13 points. The district, which includes suburban and rural areas near Cleveland, voted for President Donald Trump by 11 points in 2024. In early 2026, Miller’s ex-wife Emily Moreno, daughter of Ohio GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno, accused him of abuse; the House Ethics Committee has opened an investigation, and a separate allegation of illegal drug use has been reported.
Data & Statistics
- Polls: A Tavern Research poll (Aug 4-5, 2026; 635 likely voters, ±4.8 pp) gave Poindexter a 54-46 lead. A second poll (Aug 5-6, 2026; 615 likely voters, ±3.94 pp) showed Poindexter at 47 % versus Miller’s 33 %. Both polls reported 48 % of voters saying the allegations made them less likely to support Miller.
- Prediction markets: As of early Tuesday, Poindexter held an 80 % probability of flipping the seat on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Fundraising: Miller has pledged a personal loan of $1 million to his campaign. The RNC reports $125 million on hand, while Trump’s super PAC holds $400 million. The DCCC’s “Red to Blue” designation typically brings several hundred thousand dollars in additional resources.
Official Statements & Responses
- Miller filed paperwork to trigger a House Ethics Committee investigation of himself, stating he has “absolutely nothing to hide.”
- Brian Poindexter framed his campaign as a fight for working-class families, emphasizing his background as a union ironworker and city-council member.
- Joe Gruters, RNC chairman, said the party will “support our nominees” and urged Republicans to back Miller despite the controversy.
Criticism & Opposition
- Bernie Moreno posted on X that Miller “fails basic standards of character required to hold elected office.”
- Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN) argued on “Meet the Press” that Miller should resign “if the allegations are true” and warned the accusations could endanger the GOP’s House majority.
Verbatim Quotes
- “As I've said before, if the accusations against Max Miller are proven true, he should be in prison, not in Congress,” — Bernie Moreno
- “We're going to support our nominees,” — Joe Gruters, national committee chairman
- “I have the utmost confidence that my constituents back home know me. This race is a home race,” — Representative Max Miller, spokeswoman
What’s Next
The November 2026 general election will decide whether the GOP retains the 7th District and its ability to hold the House majority. Both parties are expected to increase ad spending in the Cleveland media market, a region already described as “expensive” for campaign costs. The outcome will also influence resource allocation to other competitive Ohio races, including Senate and gubernatorial contests slated for the same cycle.
