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S&P Forecasts NZ Growth Steady, OCR Peaks at 3%

8/12/2026

Summary

Story summary

Vincent R. Conti, S&P Global head of macroeconomic modelling, said New Zealand’s domestic demand is improving and business investment is gaining momentum into the second half of 2026.
S&P Global kept its 2028 and 2029 New Zealand growth forecasts at 2.4 percent.
It forecast unemployment at 5.2 percent by end-2026 and inflation at 2.4 percent in 2027, within the Reserve Bank’s 1-3 percent range.
It expects the Official Cash Rate to peak at 3 percent and stay steady.

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Story summary

Vincent R. Conti, S&P Global head of macroeconomic modelling, said New Zealand’s domestic demand is improving and business investment is gaining momentum into the second half of 2026.
S&P Global kept its 2028 and 2029 New Zealand growth forecasts at 2.4 percent.
It forecast unemployment at 5.2 percent by end-2026 and inflation at 2.4 percent in 2027, within the Reserve Bank’s 1-3 percent range.
It expects the Official Cash Rate to peak at 3 percent and stay steady.