Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Historic Lows as Midterms Loom
8/12/2026, 11:18:24 AM
Core Event: Record-Low Approval in August Polls
The Economist/YouGov poll conducted August 7-10 2026 and released August 11 2026 found 33 % of U.S. adults approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 62 % disapprove. The poll’s net approval rating was –29, the lowest ever recorded by this pollster for either of his terms. Margin of error ± 3.2 percentage points.
Background & Context
Trump entered his second term in January 2025 with approval in the high-40s to low-50s percent range. Over the next 18 months his standing fell, with analysts linking the decline to economic concerns, the Iran war, and rising inflation. Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls recorded a net approval of –20.4 on July 30 2026, just above a term-low of –20.6 recorded that same day.
Data & Statistics
- Overall approval: 33 % (Economist/YouGov); 32-39 % across other trackers.
- Disapproval: 62 % (Economist/YouGov); 55-61 % in other surveys.
- Net approval: –29 (Economist/YouGov); –20.4 (Silver’s aggregate).
- Demographic lows: Women 29 % approval, 66 % disapproval; White Americans 39 % approval, 57 % disapproval; College graduates 27 % approval, 69 % disapproval; Independents 18 % approval, 71 % disapproval.
- Hispanic voters: Approval fell from 37 % (July 17-20) to 27 % (August 3).
- Perceived honesty: 60 % view Trump as “not honest and trustworthy.”
- Age concern: 53 % say the 80-year-old president is too old for the White House.
Why It Matters: Midterm Implications
The low approval environment coincides with a generic congressional ballot lead for Democrats of 6.7 points (Silver’s forecast). Historically, presidents with such dismal approval ratings see their party suffer in midterm contests, raising the risk of a “lame-duck” second half of the term. The November 3 midterms could therefore shift control of both chambers to Democrats.
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump dismissed the poll’s significance in an interview with Punchbowl News, asserting that Republican base anger is directed at congressional leaders, not at him. He also cited his 2024 election victories in several states.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Net approval discrepancy: Newsweek reports a net rating of –29, while The Conversation cites a Silver-calculated net of –20.4 for July 30.
- Overall approval range: Poll aggregators list Trump’s approval between 32 % (Quinnipiac) and 39 % (RealClearPolitics, Ballotpedia, CNN/SSRS).
- Missing data: No source provides a definitive breakdown of approval among rural voters for the August 7-10 poll.
Verbatim Quotes
What’s Next
- Midterm forecast update: Nate Silver’s election model refreshed August 11 2026, continuing to project Democratic advantages in both chambers.
- Campaign activity: Trump held a tele-rally on August 10 supporting South Carolina Senate candidate Darline Graham and appeared in Geneva, Ohio, at the Patriot Games Finale.
- Executive actions: Federal Register data show Trump has signed 48 executive orders in 2026, covering issues from birth tourism to critical mineral supply chains.
