Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

July CPI Rises 3.4% as Fed Hike Odds Fall

8/12/2026

35 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The U.S. Labor Department reported July CPI up 3.4% year-over-year, easing from 3.5% in June.
Core inflation rose 0.2% month-to-month to 2.5% year-over-year, the slowest pace since early 2024.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials split 9-3 to hold the policy rate at 3.5%-3.75% as odds of a September hike fell to about 38%.

History

Historical Context

In the early 1980s, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, appointed by President Ronald Reagan, raised the federal-funds rate to about 20% in June 1981, pulling inflation from 13.5% in 1980 down to roughly 3% by 1983. The Labor Department reported CPI growth of 3.4% year-over-year in July 2024, the slowest since early 2024, and the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.5-3.75%.

1 of 2

Story summary

The U.S. Labor Department reported July CPI up 3.4% year-over-year, easing from 3.5% in June.
Core inflation rose 0.2% month-to-month to 2.5% year-over-year, the slowest pace since early 2024.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials split 9-3 to hold the policy rate at 3.5%-3.75% as odds of a September hike fell to about 38%.

1 / 2