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NHC Expands Forecast Cone to 90% Tracks

8/12/2026

Summary

Invest 92L Developing

Cristobal formed Aug 12 2026, 880 mi west of the Azores with 45 mph winds, and is expected to dissipate by Aug 13 without U.S. or Caribbean coastal watches.
Invest 92L has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles.
Tropical Cyclone One-C, 1,000 mi east of Hawaii with 35 mph winds, is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching islands by Friday, prompting a watch and up to 20 inch rain.

Summary

NHC Expands Outlook

NHC officials said the forecast cone now covers 90% of possible tracks, up from 67%.
The outlook map now uses a gray X for low-chance disturbances, replacing yellow shading.
Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said hatched areas on the outlook mark zones where a cyclone could develop.
NHC now selects only its top four or five models for official forecasts.
Invests 90-99L trigger high-resolution models, Hurricane-Hunter flights and spaghetti ensembles.

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Invest 92L Developing

Cristobal formed Aug 12 2026, 880 mi west of the Azores with 45 mph winds, and is expected to dissipate by Aug 13 without U.S. or Caribbean coastal watches.
Invest 92L has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles.
Tropical Cyclone One-C, 1,000 mi east of Hawaii with 35 mph winds, is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching islands by Friday, prompting a watch and up to 20 inch rain.

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