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Brazil’s native vegetation drops to 65%, boosting El Niño risk

8/12/2026

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Summary

MapBiomas Flags Deforestation

Brazil’s native vegetation fell from 79% to 65%, raising vulnerability to the 2023-2024 El Niño, MapBiomas reports.
Agriculture now covers 32% of Brazil, up from 18% in 1985, after forest and Cerrado loss.
Tasso Azevedo of MapBiomas said deforested Amazon areas lost more rainfall than forested zones during the El Niño.
Brazil warned in July that temperatures may exceed two degrees Celsius above average, indicating a very strong El Niño.

Summary

Swain Warns

Daniel Swain warned that the Colorado River Basin’s over-allocation means a single wet year cannot solve its long-term water shortage.
Swain said the basin’s drought stems from overuse and aridification, not merely low precipitation.
Forecaster Paul Pastelok said a strong El Niño could trigger a significant jump in Lake Mead’s level.
Pastelok added that a winter in 2027-28 could raise storage, though experts say it will not end the water crisis.

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MapBiomas Flags Deforestation

Brazil’s native vegetation fell from 79% to 65%, raising vulnerability to the 2023-2024 El Niño, MapBiomas reports.
Agriculture now covers 32% of Brazil, up from 18% in 1985, after forest and Cerrado loss.
Tasso Azevedo of MapBiomas said deforested Amazon areas lost more rainfall than forested zones during the El Niño.
Brazil warned in July that temperatures may exceed two degrees Celsius above average, indicating a very strong El Niño.

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