Full Breakdown
Hochul’s Lead Narrows in Siena Poll Ahead of New York Governor Race
8/12/2026, 10:14:56 PM
Core Event: Siena Poll Shows 10-Point Gap
A Siena University poll of likely New York State voters conducted August 3-6, 2026 surveyed 811 respondents and found Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leading Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman 49 percent to 39 percent. The poll’s margin of error is ± 4.2 percentage points. This marks a contraction from Hochul’s 52-32 advantage among registered voters in June.
Background & Context
In the 2022 race, Hochul beat former Congressman Lee Zeldin by six points after leading likely voters 53-39 in August 2022. A June poll of registered voters showed Hochul ahead 52-32. The Siena poll is the first likely-voter survey of the 2026 contest and follows a series of polls indicating a narrowing gap.
Data & Statistics
- Geography: Hochul leads 64-19 in New York City, trails Blakeman 49-41 in down-state suburbs, and is tied upstate (45-46).
- Partisan bases: Among Democrats, Hochul enjoys an 80-8 advantage; among Republicans, Blakeman holds an 84-9 lead. Likely independents favor Blakeman 45-40.
- Issue preferences: Voters say Hochul would do a better job on affordable housing (51-35), price affordability (48-41), energy future (47-42), public safety (47-44), and undocumented immigration (45-44).
Official Statements & Responses
Bruce Blakeman, Nassau County executive, dismissed the poll’s accuracy, stating that “All of the polls we have seen in the last two months have us virtually tied with Kathy Hochul… This poll is always off and continues to be off.” Governor Hochul’s campaign has not issued a new comment; her prior messaging emphasizes housing affordability and energy policy, matching the issue preferences shown in the Siena survey.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, as Hochul leads among Democrats 80-8% and Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9%. Likely independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45–40%,” — Steven Greenberg
- “While Hochul has a 10-point lead, likely voters think she’ll do a better job than Blakeman on increasing affordable housing by 16 points. That’s the good news for Hochul. The bad news is that voters think she’s better than Blakeman on four other issues – affordability, energy, safety, and immigrants – by between only one and seven points,” — Steven Greenberg
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Other recent polls show divergent margins: a co/efficient poll of 1,085 likely voters (June 30-July 2, 2026) placed Hochul ahead 6 points (47-41); an Echelon Insights poll of 500 registered voters (March 24-26, 2026) gave her a 15-point lead (55-40). A conservative “Strong and Safe” Super PAC poll in July reported a 4-point gap (47-43), and a “Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers” poll showed a 6-point gap (47-41). These variations illustrate the uncertainty inherent in early-season polling.
What’s Next
New York voters will cast ballots for governor on November 3, 2026. The Siena poll’s narrowing margin suggests a more competitive race than in previous cycles, with the final outcome dependent on turnout and campaign dynamics.
