Full Breakdown
U.S. Stocks Hover Near Records as Oil Prices Swing on Iran Conflict Uncertainty
8/12/2026, 10:36:36 PM
Core Market Movement
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to around 7,730 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.1% to 53,800, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5% to roughly 26,450. Industrial and utility stocks posted the strongest gains, offsetting losses in heavyweight technology shares such as Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, which each fell between 0.8% and 2.8%. The advance-decline ratios on the NYSE and Nasdaq remained positive, indicating more stocks rose than fell despite the overall dip.
Background: Iran-U.S. Tensions and Oil Supply
The United States and Israel’s strikes on Iran in late February closed the Strait of Hormuz, bottling a large share of the world’s crude. Since then, Brent crude has oscillated between $72 and $102 per barrel, with brief spikes above $90 before retreating below $87.
Data & Statistics
- Brent crude settled near $88 per barrel, up roughly 1% from the previous day.
- U.S. regular-gasoline price averaged $4.01 per gallon, according to AAA.
- The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.69%, still well above the pre-war level of 3.97%.
- CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows traders split evenly on whether the Federal Reserve will raise its policy rate at the September meeting.
- FactSet projects earnings per share for S&P 500 companies to be about 50% higher than a year earlier.
Official Statements & Responses
- Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until its conditions are met, warning that any premature reopening would be “premature and unsafe.”
- President Donald Trump asserted that Washington is “only semi-negotiating” with Tehran and urged continued economic pressure on Iran.
- Khawaja Asif told Bloomberg that recent signals point toward a near-term peace arrangement, suggesting oil markets could react positively if an agreement materializes.
- The CME Group reported that market participants view the probability of a September rate hike as roughly a coin-flip.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the exact recent range of Brent prices. The Associated Press and PBS note a swing between $72 and $102 per barrel, while AA cites a narrower rise to $87.7–$88.9. Both ranges are consistent with volatile trading but illustrate a lack of precise consensus on the current price band. Projections for July CPI also vary: Bloomberg’s median forecast expects a 0.1% month-over-month rise, whereas some analysts anticipate a modest slowdown to 3.4% year-over-year. The final CPI figure remains pending.
Verbatim Quotes
- “When you get some indication of something positive happening — that this war is going to come to an end or some kind of an agreement — you start to see oil back off. Any positive news is better than negative news,” — Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth
What’s Next
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July consumer-price index on Wednesday, a key data point that could sway the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision. Market participants will also watch for any concrete diplomatic breakthrough between Iran, Oman and the United States that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing oil-price pressure and influencing equity valuations.
