Full Breakdown
Vermont’s 2026 Gubernatorial Contest: Phil Scott Seeks Sixth Term as Democrats Rally Behind Amanda Janoe
8/12/2026, 10:56:25 PM
Core Event
Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott is running for a sixth two-year term, a bid that would make him Vermont’s longest-serving governor if he completes the term. The Democratic Party nominated economist Amanda Janoe after she defeated former child-advocacy CEO Aly Richards in the primary. Scott faces no Republican challenger, while the Democrats contend with a divided field and a state that voted for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
Background & Context
Vermont and neighboring New Hampshire are the only states that hold gubernatorial elections every two years, a tradition that has produced frequent turnover but also allowed Scott to build a long tenure. Since his first election in 2016, Scott has positioned himself as a moderate Republican, openly criticizing former President Donald Trump, endorsing Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary, and voting for Harris in the 2024 general election. His bipartisan stance has helped him win large margins in past contests—approximately 69 % in 2022 and just over 73 % in 2024—making him the most popular governor in the Republican caucus.
Data & Statistics
- Approval ratings: Morning Consult’s July poll placed Scott at 71 % approval, while a July 21 University of New Hampshire poll recorded 48 % approval, the lowest since the survey began in 2022.
- Primary results: Janoe secured 49.2 % of the vote to Richards’ 46.5 % in the Democratic primary.
- Fundraising: Richards raised roughly $453,000, about double Janoe’s $308,000 as of late July.
- Voter registration: About 501,000 Vermonters are registered to vote.
Official Statements & Responses
Governor Scott announced his campaign in May, emphasizing a work-ethic-focused approach: “After many years of public service, I believe most Vermonter[s] appreciate my work ethic, and if you elect me to another term, I’ll do all I can to leave Vermont in better shape than I found it.”
Amanda Janoe, speaking after her primary victory, framed the result as an “upset” and credited “ordinary Vermonters” for demanding “bold ideas and specific solutions.” She outlined priorities that include expanding publicly funded primary care, raising income taxes on the wealthy to fund the plan, and addressing rising education costs and housing affordability.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Approval rating discrepancy: Morning Consult reports a 71 % figure, whereas the UNH poll on July 21 indicates 48 %.
- Fundraising details: Cash-on-hand figures are reported only up to late July; later developments are unreported.
- Voter turnout projections: Analysts note historically low Republican primary turnout, but precise expectations for the general election are not quantified.
What’s Next
The contest will be decided later this month, when Vermonters cast ballots for governor, lieutenant governor, and all state legislative seats. The Cook Political Report rates the race “solidly Republican,” yet political scientists note that a strong Democratic wave could make the election competitive, especially given the recent dip in Scott’s approval among Republican voters. Both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach as the election approaches.
