Full Breakdown
US Soybean Export Shift Amid Falling Chinese Demand
8/13/2026, 1:08:59 AM
Core Event
U.S. soybean growers are redirecting sales after China’s imports fell sharply. Only a little over 12 million tonnes of the most recent U.S. crop are expected to reach China, far below the roughly 24 million tonnes the market typically absorbs. The shortfall is being offset by higher sales to other overseas buyers and by growing demand from the U.S. biofuel sector, limiting the impact on overall soybean production.
Background & Context
During the trade war that began under President Donald Trump, China halted purchases of U.S. soybeans in early 2025. In November, Beijing pledged to buy at least 25 million tonnes of American soybeans each year through 2028 as part of a new agreement. Despite the pledge, the 2023-24 harvest is still far below the target, prompting growers to seek alternative outlets.
Data & Statistics
- The American Soybean Association (ASA) represents more than 500,000 soybean farmers, covering about 83.6 million acres (33.8 million hectares) across the Midwest.
- Expected China-bound shipments: just over 12 million tonnes, versus the usual ~24 million tonnes.
- The 2028 commitment: a minimum of 25 million tonnes annually.
Official Statements & Responses
ASA chief economist Scott Gerlt explained that growers are “adapting through two other outlets” after the Chinese demand slump. He noted that while a larger China market would be preferable, the shift toward other foreign buyers and biofuel use has helped keep overall production levels steady.
Why It Matters
The pivot to biofuels and new overseas customers cushions U.S. farmers from a potentially larger decline in soybean acreage or income. Maintaining stable production also supports the domestic biofuel industry, which relies on a steady feedstock supply.
Verbatim Quotes
- “While we would love to see more soybeans sold to China , US soy has been adapting through two other outlets,” — Scott Gerlt, chief economist with the American Soybean Association
