Yale Preprint Projects Trillion-Dollar Savings and Over 100,000 Lives Saved Under Medicare for All

A preprint posted on July 24 by researchers at Yale School of Public Health and the University of Maryland, Baltimore estimates that the United States currently spends roughly $5.2 trillion annually on health care. Under a single-payer “Medicare for All” system, total spending would fall to about $4.2 trillion, generating annual savings of approximately $1.04 trillion. The analysis also projects that more than 114,000 deaths could be avoided each year, primarily by extending coverage to the 27.5 million uninsured and reducing mortality associated with lack of care. Savings are broken down into five major categories: $377.5 billion from lower prescription-drug prices, $286.3 billion from reduced administrative overhead, $285.7 billion from curbing fraudulent billing, $100 billion from fewer costly emergency-room and hospital visits, and $295.6 billion from more equitable provider reimbursement.

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The study, which has not yet undergone peer review, updates a prior Yale analysis that estimated $450 billion in savings and 68,000 lives saved annually. The new model incorporates recent increases in health-care costs, demographic aging, and policy shifts that have expanded the uninsured population. Researchers assume that eliminating the for-profit insurance architecture and aligning payments with patient needs would drive the projected reductions in drug prices, administrative waste, and unnecessary care.

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Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the lead sponsor of the Medicare for All Act, cited the findings as confirmation of a long-held position that universal coverage both saves lives and reduces expenditures. The study’s release coincided with a rally for the People v. the Powerful movement at the Detroit Opera House on July 18, 2026, where former Detroit health official Abdul El-Sayed, a Senate candidate, highlighted Medicare for All as a central campaign promise. Advocacy groups supporting the proposal have used the new estimates to bolster calls for legislative action, while opponents have noted that the analysis relies on assumptions that have not been tested in practice.

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If the projected savings materialize, the existing health-care budget would be sufficient to fund universal coverage, according to the authors. However, the study’s reliance on pre-implementation modeling means that actual outcomes would depend on how the system is structured, how drug-price negotiations are conducted, and whether fraudulent billing can be effectively eliminated. The authors acknowledge that the estimates are contingent on policy choices and that further empirical validation will be required once a single-payer system is in place.

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