Pollster Frank Luntz Calls for a Halt to Midwest Primary Polling After Recent Misses

Pollster Frank Luntz, a longtime Republican-consulting figure, argued that primary polling in the Midwestern United States should be suspended until its reliability can be determined. He cited the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, where five recent polls showed Assemblywoman Francesca Hong leading by 18–22 points, yet she lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by half a point. He also referenced the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, in which five polls placed Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed ahead by 10–16 points, but he ultimately won by a single point. Luntz presented these outcomes as evidence of systemic error.

Breitbart

Luntz framed the Wisconsin and Michigan cases as part of a longer pattern. He recalled the 2016 Michigan Democratic presidential primary, noting that every poll projected Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by double-digit margins (11–37 points), with a RealClearPolitics average of 21.4 points, while Sanders won the state by 1.5 points. He also mentioned a 2024 Iowa poll that suggested former President Donald Trump was trailing Kamala Harris by three points, yet Trump won the state by 13 points.

Breitbart

Luntz asserted that inflated poll leads can depress turnout among opponents’ supporters, as voters may perceive their candidate as hopeless. He claimed that the Michigan Senate poll “likely handed” El-Sayed the win by suppressing Democratic-opponent turnout. If polling were halted, Luntz argued, campaigns and media would be forced to rely on alternative metrics, potentially reducing the influence of what he describes as “corporate-media-driven” polling.

Breitbart

The article is an opinion piece; no other officials or polling organizations offered counter-statements within the provided sources. Luntz concluded that pollsters have had “decades to reform” and that the lack of reform is a deliberate choice.

Breitbart