Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

July CPI Cooldown Cuts September Rate-Hike Odds to 40%

8/13/2026

42 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% in July, with core CPI up 0.2% to 2.5% year-over-year.
Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the data may keep hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) officials at bay.
CME Group’s FedWatch showed September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike odds fell to about 40%.
MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.97% as South Korea’s market gained 4.4%.

History

Historical Context

After inflation peaked at 13.5 % in 1980, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker lifted the federal-funds rate to 20 % by June 1981, triggering the 1980-82 recession and driving inflation below 3 % by 1983. Today, July’s CPI rose only 0.1 % and markets assign a 40 % chance of a Fed pause, echoing Volcker’s tight-money legacy.

1 of 2

Story summary

U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% in July, with core CPI up 0.2% to 2.5% year-over-year.
Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the data may keep hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) officials at bay.
CME Group’s FedWatch showed September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike odds fell to about 40%.
MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 0.97% as South Korea’s market gained 4.4%.

1 / 2