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UK GDP Climbs 0.4% in Q2 Despite Risks

8/13/2026

40 9 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

UK GDP rose 0.3% in June, giving 0.4% growth for Q2, ONS reported.
The rise was led by services (+0.5%) and construction (+0.3%) while production was flat.
Food, drink, TV, retail and hospitality sales rose thanks to the FIFA World Cup and a heatwave above 37 °C.
Treasury modelling warns that a Strait of Hormuz disruption could lower UK GDP to 0.3% in 2027 and raise inflation to 4.3%.

History

Historical Context

After OAPEC’s October 1973 embargo forced oil prices to jump from $3 to $11.65 per barrel, the United Kingdom—still reliant on imported oil because North Sea fields opened only in 1975—saw GDP fall 1.5% and inflation hit 25%, prompting Edward Heath’s recession warning and a coal-miners strike that helped topple his government. Today’s modest June rise revives those supply-risk concerns.

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Story summary

UK GDP rose 0.3% in June, giving 0.4% growth for Q2, ONS reported.
The rise was led by services (+0.5%) and construction (+0.3%) while production was flat.
Food, drink, TV, retail and hospitality sales rose thanks to the FIFA World Cup and a heatwave above 37 °C.
Treasury modelling warns that a Strait of Hormuz disruption could lower UK GDP to 0.3% in 2027 and raise inflation to 4.3%.

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