Who Really Controls the Strait of Hormuz?

Since the U.S.–Iran war began on February 28, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed. On a recent Tuesday only 14 vessels were recorded crossing, far below the ?120 ships that passed daily before the conflict. The United States maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran says it will not fully reopen the strait until the blockade, sanctions and asset freezes are lifted.

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The strait carries roughly 20 percent of global oil shipments and an even larger share of natural-gas exports. The war, launched jointly by the United States and Israel, has featured reciprocal missile strikes, drone attacks on merchant vessels, and stalled diplomatic overtures.

Al Jazeera (website)

• Vessel traffic: 14 ships vs. 8 ships (Al Jazeera/Reuters) on the same day.

Al Jazeera (website)

• Pre-war baseline: ?120 ships per day.

CNN

• Oil flow: Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported ?9 million barrels per day (bpd) moving through the strait, with an additional 5–7 million bpd via upgraded pipelines, for a total of about 15 million bpd. Pre-war flow exceeded 20 million bpd.

WJCL - Savannah News

• Attacks: Four Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels were hit in one week. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations logged 54 reports of damage, three total losses and 13 near-misses since the war’s start.

CNN

President Donald Trump asserted U.S. “total control” of the strait, describing the blockade as a “wall of steel” that Iran cannot breach and claiming the Navy had swept the waterway for mines. Iranian officials countered that the strait will remain closed until the blockade ends, sanctions are lifted and Iranian assets are unfrozen.

CNN

Former U.S. Pacific Command intelligence director Carl Schuster argued that “until you can ensure safe use of the strait, you do not have total control.” Retired Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton described the situation as a “standoff,” noting that neither side can exercise full control because of the proximity of U.S. forces and Iran’s ability to threaten mines and small-boat harassment.

CNN

On August 10, 2026, two youths were photographed on the Bandar Abbas shoreline as anchored ships lingered in the strait. A still image from a video released on May 8, 2026, showed an Iranian-navy missile launch. On July 12, 2026, Qatar intercepted a missile attack amid ongoing U.S.–Iran exchanges.

CNN

• Vessel counts: CNN cited 14 ships crossing on a Tuesday, while Al Jazeera/Reuters reported only 8 ships the same day.

Al Jazeera (website)

• The precise daily volume remains uncertain.

The Hill

• “The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!” — Donald Trump

Al Jazeera (website)

• “Until you can ensure safe use of the strait, you do not have total control,” — Carl Schuster

CNN

• “We have to attain deterrence so that the enemy never dares to attack us, so we can live with security,” — Mohammad Reza Naqdi

CNN

U.S. policymakers face pressure from upcoming midterm elections, which could shape the administration’s approach to the blockade and negotiations. Analysts note that continued diversification of oil supply routes—through pipelines and alternative chokepoints—may gradually reduce the strategic leverage of the strait, regardless of which side claims control.

CNN