Full Breakdown
Maine Senate Race Tightens as New Poll Shows Troy Jackson Slightly Ahead of Susan Collins
8/13/2026, 12:22:24 PM
Core Event
A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10, 2026 of 1,000 Maine registered voters found Democratic candidate Troy Jackson leading incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48 % to 46 % (margin of error ± 3 pp). The poll also showed 55 % of respondents “very or extremely concerned” that Collins votes with President Donald Trump too often, versus 53 % “not at all” or “not very” concerned about Jackson’s proximity to the Democratic Socialists.
Background & Context
Collins, a five-term Republican senator first elected in 1996, won her 2020 re-election by nearly nine points and is the only GOP senator up for re-election in a state Trump lost in 2024. The Democratic nomination shifted in July when former state Senate president Graham Platner withdrew after an assault allegation, and Jackson—a fifth-generation logger and former Maine Senate president—was selected as the replacement nominee.
Data & Statistics
- Poll numbers: Jackson 48 % vs. Collins 46 % (Fox News).
- Concern levels: 55 % worry Collins aligns with Trump; 43 % worry Jackson is too progressive.
- Demographic splits: Jackson leads among voters under 45, women, college-educated and union households. Collins retains strength among older, non-college-educated rural voters and White evangelical Christians.
- Other recent polls: UNH Survey Center (July 15-20) shows Jackson 49 % vs. Collins 46 %; Hart Research (July 27-Aug 1) reports Jackson 49 % vs. Collins 45 %. All have margins of error around 3 pp.
Official Statements & Responses
- Sen. Collins defended her 2018 vote confirming Justice Brett Kavanaugh, saying she does not regret it.
- Daron Shaw, Republican pollster for the Fox News survey, noted that “replacing Platner with Jackson has allowed two other factors to assert themselves — opposition to President Trump and a desire for change.”
Verbatim Quotes
- “Replacing Platner with Jackson has allowed two other factors to assert themselves — opposition to President Trump and a desire for change,” — Republican pollster (q1)
- “He really needs to speak to the women in Maine, and really convince them that he's going to advocate well for them,” — Stacy Leafsong, progressive organizer (q2)
- “I'm rock solid on this now, and Susan has been the opposite," Jackson said in an interview with Maine Public Radio last month.” — Troy Jackson, Senate candidate (q4)
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The Fox News, UNH Survey Center and Hart Research polls all place Jackson ahead, but each falls within its margin of error, leaving the exact size of the lead uncertain. No poll provides a definitive picture of undecided voters beyond the Fox News finding that roughly one-in-five Jackson supporters might change their mind before Election Day.
What’s Next
The contest will be decided on Nov. 3, 2026. Both campaigns plan to intensify outreach to women, younger voters and independents in the weeks ahead, while emphasizing economic concerns such as inflation, housing costs and utility bills.
