Story perspectives

Study Finds 10% Chance Wars Double Severity Each Year

8/13/2026

Summary

Story summary

Aaron Clauset and colleagues at the University of Colorado Boulder published a Science Advances study of interstate wars from 1946-2008, finding each year of fighting carries a 10% chance of doubling severity and a 1% chance of a tenfold increase.
They found escalation common in interstate wars, noting early low casualties do not guarantee a limited final scale.
Clauset urged policymakers to treat every conflict as carrying substantial escalation risk.

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Story summary

Aaron Clauset and colleagues at the University of Colorado Boulder published a Science Advances study of interstate wars from 1946-2008, finding each year of fighting carries a 10% chance of doubling severity and a 1% chance of a tenfold increase.
They found escalation common in interstate wars, noting early low casualties do not guarantee a limited final scale.
Clauset urged policymakers to treat every conflict as carrying substantial escalation risk.