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Darline Graham Advances to Aug. 25 Senate Runoff

8/13/2026

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Summary

Graham Advances

Sen. Darline Graham, appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster to finish her brother’s term, advanced to a runoff on Aug. 25 with 32.6% of the vote.
Rep. Ralph Norman placed second with just over 24% and will meet Graham in the Aug. 25 runoff.
President Donald Trump endorsed Graham, calling her candidacy a “fabulous tribute” to her brother.
Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with over $3 million in campaign funds, will be Graham’s November opponent.

Summary

Democrats Target Senate

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to seize control.
Key toss-up Senate races include Maine, Ohio, Alaska, and a Lean-Dem open seat in North Carolina.
RealClearPolling shows 48.6% favor Democrats versus 41.5% for Republicans as of August 12, 2026.
Polymarket odds give Democrats an 85% chance to win the House and a 50% chance of a Senate tie in the 2026 midterms.

History

Historical Context

The 2008 elections produced a Democratic wave, with Barack Obama’s win helping the party add eight Senate seats, including Mark Warner’s 65% victory in Virginia that gave Democrats a 51-49 majority. Analysts note that without a comparable surge—Democrats trail by seven points in the 2026 South Carolina runoff, the GOP’s projected 53-47 Senate edge may persist through 2028.

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Graham Advances

Sen. Darline Graham, appointed by Gov. Henry McMaster to finish her brother’s term, advanced to a runoff on Aug. 25 with 32.6% of the vote.
Rep. Ralph Norman placed second with just over 24% and will meet Graham in the Aug. 25 runoff.
President Donald Trump endorsed Graham, calling her candidacy a “fabulous tribute” to her brother.
Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with over $3 million in campaign funds, will be Graham’s November opponent.

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