Full Breakdown
Swedish Election Poll Shows Opposition Closing Gap Ahead of September Vote
8/13/2026, 9:45:02 PM
Latest Poll Results
A Demoskop survey conducted from July 29 to August 10 and published by *Svenska Dagbladet* indicates that the centre-left opposition bloc would receive 50.6 % of the vote, while Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s governing coalition is projected at 46.9 %. The gap has narrowed to 3.7 percentage points, down from the 7.6-point lead recorded in June. The poll surveyed 2,016 respondents.
Party-Specific Shifts
The Social Democrats, led by Magdalena Andersson, are estimated to win 30.2 % of the vote, virtually unchanged from the 30.3 % they secured in the 2022 election. The Moderate Party’s share could fall to 16.8 %, a decline from 19.1 % four years earlier. The Christian Democrats, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Ebba Busch, rose to 7.5 %, their highest level in six years, a gain Demoskop attributes partly to voters switching between camps. The Liberals remain at 2.4 %, well below the 4 % threshold required for Riksdag representation. The Sweden Democrats, whose leader Jimmie Akesson hopes to obtain several ministerial posts, slipped slightly to 20.2 % from 20.5 %.
Projected Parliamentary Balance
Based on Demoskop’s calculations, the opposition bloc would secure 186 seats in the 349-member Riksdag, compared with 163 seats for the governing coalition. The Liberals’ sub-threshold support would leave them without any seats, potentially reshaping coalition dynamics.
Outlook to the September 13 Election
Swedes will vote on September 13. Campaign discourse is centred on cost-of-living pressures, security, immigration, crime and energy supply. Analysts note that a shift in power could increase welfare spending but is unlikely to alter Sweden’s stance on immigration, defence or aid to Ukraine. The narrowing poll gap suggests a competitive race, with the final outcome still dependent on voter turnout and any late-campaign developments.
