Full Breakdown
SpaceX Stock Surge Triggers Short-Seller Pullback
8/13/2026, 11:56:17 PM
Core Market Move
SpaceX’s newly public shares rallied sharply, climbing roughly 10% to about $148 per share. The surge lifted the price about 10% above the $135 IPO price and roughly 41% above the early-August low. At the same time, short interest dropped to around 11% of the publicly traded float, down sharply from a peak of 34% the previous week, according to data from S3 Partners. The contraction reflects bearish investors closing positions as the tradable float expanded after the first major lockup expiration.
Float Expansion and Lockup Details
More than 911 million restricted shares became eligible for trading after the recent lockup expiration, surpassing the 639 million shares sold in the IPO. An additional 319 million shares could be released on Aug. 20, with further unlocks of about 700 million shares slated for September and a comparable amount in October. The influx of supply has been cited as a factor that could influence short-term trading dynamics.
Analyst Assessment of Valuation
Morningstar’s chief U.S. market strategist, Dave Sekera, warned that the rally may be driven by temporary supply-and-demand forces rather than a shift in the company’s intrinsic value. He maintained a $62 fair-value estimate for SPCX, implying roughly a 58% downside from current levels and characterizing the stock as “one-star-rated” and trading at more than twice that value. Sekera noted that investors are pricing in “much more optimistic scenarios” for Starship and orbital data-center revenues than Morningstar deems probable.
Official Statements & Responses
The firm’s data suggest that short covering may have added fuel to the upward price movement as bearish investors repurchased shares.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Shorts that wanted to short are out of bullets,” — Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3 Partners
- “You really need to divorce what’s going on with the fundamentals of the company and the valuation of the company versus how it’s going to trade in the marketplace,” — Dave Sekera, market strategist
