Full Breakdown
Who Controls the Strait of Hormuz? A Six-Month Standoff Between Washington and Tehran
8/13/2026, 11:57:23 PM
Core Event
Since the U.S.–Israel war on Iran began on February 28, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments. President Donald Trump asserted on Truth Social that the United States “has total control” of the waterway, while Iranian officials—including Basij commander Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb—insisted the strait remains under Tehran’s management. Both sides maintain naval blockades and have exchanged strikes, leaving commercial traffic at historic lows.
Background & Context
The conflict started with a joint U.S.–Israeli bombing campaign on February 28, after which Iran began denying passage to vessels lacking its permission. A June 17 memorandum of understanding temporarily opened the strait for 60 days, but disagreements over routing caused the agreement to collapse in mid-July. Iran has since pursued talks with Oman on a shared-management scheme, while the United States continues a naval blockade of Iranian ports and claims to “sweep” the strait for mines.
Data & Statistics
- Vessel transits fell to a five-day average of 13 on May 12, the lowest level since that date.
- CNN reported 14 vessels crossed on a recent Tuesday; Reuters cited 8 transits the same day.
- Prior to the war, about 130–140 ships crossed daily; today traffic is roughly 90 % below that level.
- The U.S. naval blockade has cost Iran an estimated $4.8 billion in oil revenue during its first iteration.
Official Statements & Responses
The Iranian Foreign Ministry’s Abbas Araghchi called Washington’s claims of normal passage “baseless lies” and accused the United States of “intelligence failures.” The United States describes its blockade as a “wall of steel” protecting regional shipping and warns that any vessel ignoring it will be intercepted.
Criticism & Opposition
Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute argued that Iran no longer sees the economic squeeze as an existential threat and is “up-the-tempo” to increase pressure on the Trump administration. Former diplomat Richard Haass warned that “no one’s in total control of the Strait of Hormuz,” highlighting the difficulty of guaranteeing safe navigation amid hostilities.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Traffic counts differ: CNN’s Carl Schuster cited 14 vessels; CNBC’s Kpler-based analysis noted 13; Reuters reported 8. The discrepancy reflects limited real-time monitoring and varying definitions of “transit.”
- Blockade status: Iranian state media assert the blockade remains in effect, while U.S. officials claim a “partial” lift after the June 17 MoU, creating ambiguity about the legal regime governing the waterway.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Today you see that the Strait of Hormuz is under the management and control of the Islamic Republic, and our country continues on its path in complete security,” — Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb
- “We have total control over the Hormuz Strait right now. They don't have control. We have total control. We own it.” — Donald Trump
- “Until you can ensure safe use of the strait, you do not have total control,” — Carl Schuster
- “No one’s in total control of the Strait of Hormuz,” — Richard Haass
What’s Next
Negotiations between Iran and Oman continue, with Qatari and Pakistani mediators reporting “advanced” stages of talks. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has listed six conditions—including the end of the U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief, and payment of war reparations—that must be met before the strait can be fully reopened. No concrete deadline has been announced, and the situation remains fluid as both sides trade diplomatic statements and occasional military strikes.
