Story perspectives

PPI Stays Flat in July, Core Inflation Slows

8/14/2026

Summary

BLS PPI Stalls

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said July's Producer Price Index was unchanged and rose 4.7%, missing the 4.9% forecast.
Core PPI rose 0.2% and 4.2% year-over-year, below the 0.3% and 4.7% expectations.
Energy prices fell 3.1% in July, with gasoline down 5.7%, pulling final-demand goods prices 0.7% lower.
U.S. stocks rose, the Dow up to 53,960.29, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.61% and Fed-hike odds slipped to 38.4%.

Summary

Fed Mulls Hikes

Fed officials are debating raising rates after keeping them unchanged this year, with some pushing for hikes to curb inflation.
The personal consumption expenditures index is projected to show core July inflation unchanged at roughly 3.3%, above the 2% target.
Initial claims rose to 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 8 while continuing claims fell to 1.777 million week ended Aug. 1, and hiring improved in July after four declines, indicating limited layoffs.

History

Historical Context

After Paul Volcker became Federal Reserve chair in August 1979, he raised the federal funds rate to a 20% peak by June 1981, driving inflation from a 13.5% surge in 1980 to below 3% by 1983 and triggering the early-1980s double-dip recession. Today’s Fed policymakers cite that same tightening dilemma while debating new rate hikes.

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BLS PPI Stalls

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said July's Producer Price Index was unchanged and rose 4.7%, missing the 4.9% forecast.
Core PPI rose 0.2% and 4.2% year-over-year, below the 0.3% and 4.7% expectations.
Energy prices fell 3.1% in July, with gasoline down 5.7%, pulling final-demand goods prices 0.7% lower.
U.S. stocks rose, the Dow up to 53,960.29, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.61% and Fed-hike odds slipped to 38.4%.

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