Full Breakdown
Becerra Leads Hilton in Late-Stage California Gubernatorial Poll
8/14/2026, 4:56:23 AM
Core Poll Findings
A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released in mid-August shows Democrat Xavier Becerra ahead of Republican Steve Hilton with 55% of likely voters versus 37%, while 7% remain undecided. Party lines dominate the split: 88% of Democratic identifiers favor Becerra and 91% of Republicans back Hilton. The weighted sample of roughly 2,300 likely November voters indicates Becerra’s advantage spans all age, gender and racial-ethnic groups, with especially strong support among younger voters, women and Black voters.
Regional and Demographic Patterns
Becerra enjoys large margins in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County and the Central Coast. Hilton leads in the agricultural San Joaquin Valley, Orange County and the sparsely populated North Coast-Sierra region. Across the state, 49% of likely voters hold a favorable view of Becerra compared with 43% who view him unfavorably; Hilton’s favorability stands at 39% versus a 50% unfavorable rating. Among voters unaffiliated with either major party, 48% view Becerra favorably while 59% view Hilton unfavorably.
Issues Driving Voter Choice
When asked why they support Becerra, 38% of his backers cite “traditional Democratic policies” such as expanding health care and protecting LGBTQ+ rights, and another 38% point to his willingness to “aggressively fight Trump administration policies.” Among Hilton supporters, 55% reference “traditional Republican policies” like lowering taxes and reducing regulations, while 28% value his outsider status.
Official Statements & Responses
Becerra’s campaign frames the result as validation of his focus on lowering living costs for working families and opposing policies associated with former President Donald Trump. Hilton’s team highlights the narrowed gap from earlier polls and argues that the data reflects growing openness among voters to change the status quo.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide,” — Eric Schickler, professor
- “Today’s poll is further confirmation that California voters support Secretary Becerra’s focus on lowering the cost of living for California’s working families and standing up against the hateful and disastrous policies pushed by Trump and his endorsed candidate, Steve Hilton,” — Jonathan Underland, a Becerra campaign spokesman
- “The more voters actually hear about Becerra’s record — the higher costs, the bureaucracy, the broken system he helped build and defend — the more they will choose change,” — Hector Barajas, campaign spokesman
- “After the unsettled and chaotic primary, this is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide,” — Professor Eric Schickler
