Story perspectives

Party dissatisfaction predicts switches to independent identity, study finds

8/14/2026

Summary

Story summary

Study of 4,941 U.S. voters (Oct 2016–Nov 2022) found party dissatisfaction leads to identify as independent.
Alex Tolkin of Duke University tracked 1,293 respondents who switched from partisan to independent.
Lower favorability toward a voter’s party or its presidential nominee predicted the label change.
Policy disagreement raised independence odds especially among former Republicans.
The authors concluded the “reluctant partisan” view fits the data better than the “undercover partisan” theory.

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Story summary

Study of 4,941 U.S. voters (Oct 2016–Nov 2022) found party dissatisfaction leads to identify as independent.
Alex Tolkin of Duke University tracked 1,293 respondents who switched from partisan to independent.
Lower favorability toward a voter’s party or its presidential nominee predicted the label change.
Policy disagreement raised independence odds especially among former Republicans.
The authors concluded the “reluctant partisan” view fits the data better than the “undercover partisan” theory.