Full Breakdown
Antofagasta Lowers 2026 Copper Output Forecast After July Storms Shut Los Pelambres Mine
8/14/2026, 8:39:30 PM
Production Forecast Cut After Severe Weather
Antofagasta plc announced that its full-year 2026 copper production guidance has been revised to 625,000–655,000 metric tons, down from 650,000–700,000 tons. The downgrade follows a July-2026 shutdown of the Los Pelambres mine caused by extreme rain and snowfall in Chile’s Coquimbo Region, which the Chilean government declared a “state of catastrophe.” The company says major infrastructure escaped serious damage, but pipeline platforms and water-management systems require repairs before normal output can resume.
Background & Context
Los Pelambres is Antofagasta’s flagship high-altitude operation. The July storms deposited roughly 5 million m³ of snow, the most intense event the mine has recorded. Snow-removal work is expected to limit access to higher-grade ore zones for the remainder of the year, underscoring the operational risk that extreme weather poses to Chile, the world’s top copper-producing nation.
Data & Statistics
- H1 2026 copper production: 285,000 t (down 9% YoY).
- Revenue (six months to 30 June): $4.48 bn, up 18%.
- EBITDA: $2.84 bn, up 27% YoY; margin 63.4%.
- Pre-tax profit: $2.0 bn, up 72% YoY.
- Operating cash flow: $2.77 bn, up 53%.
- Net cash cost (first half): $1.22 lb, 8% lower YoY; full-year guidance $2.60 lb.
- Net debt: $3.97 bn (up from $2.8 bn end-2025).
- Interim dividend: 30.1 cents per share, payable 30 September.
- Share reaction: London-listed shares fell about 5% after the announcement.
Official Statements & Responses
The CEO noted that the weather event did not materially affect the Antucoya, Zaldívar or Centinela districts and that the firm remains on track with growth projects slated for commissioning in 2027. He highlighted the company’s “low levels of net debt” and “resilient balance sheet” after passing peak capital-expenditure levels for its current growth phase.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We certainly will continue to look at ways of learning from what we’ve seen to see how we can increase the resilience,” — Officer Ivan Arriagada, chief executive
- “Both initiatives are essential to strengthen our long-term resilience,” — Arriagada
- “With exceptional copper prices providing a supportive backdrop, it looks like a fantastic time to be a copper miner. But a dip in Antofagasta’s production has hit at just the wrong time,” — Duncan Ferris, Analyst, Freetrade
What’s Next
- Dividend payment of 30.1 cents per share on 30 September.
- Third-quarter production update on 15 October.
- Completion of Centinela’s second concentrator commissioning in 2027 and extension of Minera Zaldívar life to 2051 through a $900 million water-pipeline investment.
The weather-driven production cut and record-high copper prices produce a mixed outlook: strong earnings and cash flow are offset by a lower output target that may limit upside for shareholders in a market where copper demand remains robust.
