Super El Niño Poses Unprecedented Drought Threat to the Amazon Rainforest

Scientists forecast that the peak of the 2026-2027 El Niño will occur between October and December, exactly when the Amazon’s dry season ends and river levels are lowest. The timing aligns with the forest’s most fire-prone conditions, raising the likelihood of a severe, multi-month drought that could cripple the region’s “flying rivers” of moisture and its carbon-drawdown capacity.

The Guardian

The Amazon supplies the world’s largest river system—Xingu, Negro, Tapajós, Madeira, Purus, Juruá and Japurá—and generates atmospheric moisture that sustains agriculture across South America. Past strong El Niños (1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24) produced record-low river levels, unprecedented fires and massive wildlife deaths. Deforestation already removes roughly 17 % of the forest, and recent analyses suggest drought-induced stress may have pushed that figure toward 38 %. Researchers warn that if warming reaches 1.5 °C–1.9 °C above pre-industrial levels and deforestation exceeds 22 %–28 %, up to 77 % of the ecosystem could shift toward a savanna-like state.

The Guardian

• Prof. Jos Barlow – Amazon specialist, Lancaster Environment Centre, warned that a stronger El Niño “is deeply worrying.”

The Guardian

• Prof. Carlos Nobre – University of São Paulo climate scientist, said the Amazon must be prepared through March 2027.

The Guardian

• Nico Wunderling – Earth-system modeler, Goethe University, co-author of the May study on tipping-point thresholds.

Gizmodo

• Brazilian Meteorological Agency (INMET) – issued the official forecast of delayed rains, higher temperatures and intensified fire risk.

The Guardian

• Sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific are projected to peak at 7.2 °F (4 °C) above average in December, surpassing the previous record.

Newsweek

• The 2024 fire season burned more than 44.2 million acres of Amazon forest, an area larger than California.

Gizmodo

• The UN estimates that 49 million additional people could face acute hunger as El Niño-driven food-system shocks spread.

The Guardian

INMET predicts a delayed onset of the Amazonian rainy season, elevated temperatures, depleted rivers and heightened fire danger. The Brazilian government has expanded satellite monitoring, stepped up enforcement operations and increased firefighting budgets, which helped reduce burned area to its lowest level since 1985 last year. Indigenous communities are forming their own firefighting units to protect remote forest sections. The federal agency responsible for disaster response, BNPB, has deployed 48 000 personnel and water-bombing helicopters to combat peat-land fires in Indonesia, underscoring the broader regional strain on resources.

Bloomberg

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does not officially label the event “super El Niño,” preferring “very strong,” while several meteorologists and climate researchers use “super El Niño” to describe the projected intensity. Forecasts agree that the strongest impacts will emerge in the December-February window, but precise regional rainfall outcomes remain uncertain.

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• “The Amazon has to be very prepared from now through the beginning of 2027, at least up to March, because this El Niño is very likely to induce a severe drought.” — Carlos Nobre, University of São Paulo

The Guardian

• “On peat land in particular, ground crews still need to sweep the area and extinguish remaining fires to ensure the fire is completely out,” — Suharyanto, head of BNPB

Bloomberg

The El Niño peak in October-December 2026 will set the stage for a drought that could persist through March 2027. Brazil’s emergency plans call for continued satellite surveillance, expanded firefighting capacity and food-stockpiling for vulnerable communities. International experts stress that without halting deforestation and rapidly reducing fossil-fuel emissions, the Amazon’s capacity to stabilize climate and support regional agriculture will continue to erode.

The Guardian