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NOAA Predicts Very Strong El Niño for 2026-Winter

8/15/2026

Summary

NOAA Predicts El Niño

NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño for fall-winter 2026.
Scientist Michelle L'Heureux says there is 90 % chance of “very strong” status and a 69 % chance of exceeding events since 1950 in October and December.
NOAA's Climate Data Center gives a 99.9 % probability that 2026 will rank among the warmest years, with 1 % chance of being the warmest year.
Forecasts expect temperatures, more precipitation, milder winters, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes in 2026.

Summary

Marin Preps Flooding

Stephen Torrence, director of the Marin County Office of Emergency Management, said the county is preparing for flooding any time, not only during El Niño.
Marin public-works crews are conducting flood-fight training, filling sandbags and rehearsing levee protection ahead of winter.
Corte Madera Town Council Member Eli Beckman announced plans to clear gutters, keep storm drains open and lower detention ponds after January’s flooding highlighted vulnerability.

Summary

Analysts Warn

Analysts warn the 2026-27 El Niño could become the costliest on record, generating global losses measured in trillions.
Justin Mankin of Dartmouth says current forecasts point to a potential record-breaking economic impact worldwide this year.
The 1982-83 El Niño caused $4.1 trillion in losses.
The 1997-98 El Niño event cost about $5.7 trillion globally.
U.K. analysts warn South American floods could shrink rice, sugar and coffee imports, tightening supermarket shelves.

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NOAA Predicts El Niño

NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño for fall-winter 2026.
Scientist Michelle L'Heureux says there is 90 % chance of “very strong” status and a 69 % chance of exceeding events since 1950 in October and December.
NOAA's Climate Data Center gives a 99.9 % probability that 2026 will rank among the warmest years, with 1 % chance of being the warmest year.
Forecasts expect temperatures, more precipitation, milder winters, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes in 2026.

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