Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs. Paxton Tightens Ahead of November

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are vying for a Texas U.S. Senate seat in the 2026 midterms. The statewide campaign has intensified through the summer, with both candidates courting endorsements, raising record-level funds, and trading narrow leads in multiple polls. The election is set for November 2026.

Lubbock Avalanche Journal

The race is framed by a long-standing ethics controversy. In 2014, attorney Joe Joplin accused Paxton of taking a $1,000 Montblanc pen from the Collin County Courthouse; security footage showed Paxton picking up the pen, and his camp later said the act was a mistake and the pen was returned. Paxton also faced a 2015 securities-fraud indictment that was dismissed after a pre-trial diversion agreement. He is currently under impeachment proceedings in the Texas House. Talarico runs on a “New American Dream” platform and a strong stance on church-state separation, citing the 2025 IRS rule change that loosened enforcement of the Johnson Amendment.

Newsweek

• Ken Paxton: endorsed by President Donald Trump, Rep. Jodey Arrington (House Budget Committee Chairman), and 18 Republican House members, including Rep. Craig Goldman, Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and Rep. Nathaniel Moran.

Lubbock Avalanche Journal

• James Talarico: endorsed by former President Barack Obama (visit, not formal endorsement), attorney Joe Joplin, former Paxton defense lawyer Dan Cogdell, and Pastor Timothy Sloan of Luke Church.

Texas Monthly

• Emerson College/Nexstar (Aug 9-10, 1,000 likely voters): Paxton 47 % vs. Talarico 46 % (±3 pts).

Newsweek

• YouGov Blue (July 15-31, 1,001 likely voters): Talarico 48 % vs. Paxton 45 %.

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• Wedgewood Polls (July 30-31, 800 likely voters): Talarico 48 % vs. Paxton 46 %, 6 % undecided.

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• Texas Pulse (July 27-30, 619 likely voters): Talarico 47 % vs. Paxton 43 %.

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• Fox News (July 23-27): Talarico 51 % vs. Paxton 48 %.

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• YouGov/UT (June 5-12): Paxton 43 % vs. Talarico 42 %.

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Fundraising filings show Talarico raised $30 million between April and June, more than triple Paxton’s $9 million in the same period.

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Paxton’s spokesperson Nick Maddux questioned the political backgrounds of pollsters behind surveys showing Talarico ahead. Talarico’s spokesperson JT Ennis contrasted Paxton’s alleged pen theft with Talarico’s willingness to “let you borrow his” pen.

San Antonio Current

Ethics concerns dominate Paxton’s opposition. The pen incident and the dismissed securities-fraud indictment are highlighted in Talarico ads. Political science professor Calvin Jillson warned that, despite recent polling gains, Democrats face an “uphill climb” in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in over thirty years.

Newsweek

Poll results vary: some show Paxton with a slight edge (June 5-12 YouGov/UT), while others give Talarico a lead (multiple July polls). Margins of error overlap, leaving voter preference uncertain. No definitive data are available on projected turnout or the electoral impact of recent high-profile endorsements.

Newsweek

Both campaigns will continue statewide tours, economic messaging, and targeted outreach through the summer. The final contest will be decided by Texas voters in the November 2026 election.

Newsweek