Full Breakdown
Record Solar Installations in India 2026: Policy-Driven Surge Meets Supply Crunch
8/15/2026, 3:14:27 AM
Surge in Installations
India added 12 GW of solar PV capacity in Q2 2026, bringing first-half installations to a record 27 GW (Mercom India Research). The cumulative installed solar PV capacity reached 165 GW by June 2026, with large-scale projects accounting for 83 % of the total. Wood Mackenzie reports a larger first-half figure of 34 GWdc, a 38 % increase over H1 2025, and projects full-year additions to exceed 50 GWdc.
Policy Context and Drivers
The surge is tied to the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II) mandate, which required government-supported projects to use modules built with domestically manufactured cells. Developers accelerated commissioning to meet the June 1 2026 deadline and to benefit from the phased reduction of inter-state transmission charge waivers (from 75 % to 50 % for projects commissioned after July 2026).
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) waived the ALMM-II requirement for projects nearing completion, provided applications were submitted by July 23 2026. Exemptions for net-metering and open-access projects remain in force until December 31 2026.
Quantitative Overview
- Installations: 12 GW (Q2 2026, Mercom); 34 GWdc (H1 2026, Wood Mackenzie).
- Pipeline: 208 GW large-scale projects (Mercom, June 2026) and 151 GW tendered awaiting auction; 14 GW of cell-manufacturing capacity under construction (Wood Mackenzie).
- Imports: 5 GW of wafers and 20 GW of cells in the first five months of 2026; wafer imports rose 86 % YoY. Indonesian cell imports nearly tripled, while direct Chinese imports declined.
- Customs Duties: 20 % basic duty on imported cells and modules; DGTR has recommended anti-dumping duties of up to 30 % on Chinese-origin products (final decision pending).
- Price Outlook: Utility-scale system prices are projected to rise about 20 % by Q4 2026, then decline only 3 % through Q4 2027, stabilising through 2029 as additional cell capacity comes online.
Official Statements & Responses
Priya Sanjay, Managing Director of Mercom India, highlighted the June 1 2026 deadline and the ISTS phase-out deadline as key drivers of the surge.
The MNRE announced cumulative installed non-fossil-fuel capacity of 300.5 GW as of July 31 2026, with solar at 164.59 GW.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- First-Half Installations: Mercom reports 27 GW total for H1 2026, while Wood Mackenzie reports 34 GWdc, reflecting different measurement bases.
- Pipeline Size: Mercom’s 208 GW large-scale pipeline contrasts with Wood Mackenzie’s focus on 14 GW of cell-manufacturing capacity, leaving total future capacity unclear.
- Price Projections: Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 20 % price rise by Q4 2026; no comparable estimate appears in Mercom’s reporting.
Verbatim Quotes
- “India's ALMM-II mandate is a bold step toward building a fully integrated domestic solar supply chain, but cell manufacturing capacity has simply not kept pace with modules,” — Sureet Singh, Wood Mackenzie.
What’s Next
Developers anticipate a slowdown in H2 2026 as cell-manufacturing constraints tighten and module prices remain elevated. The MNRE’s waiver for near-completion projects (applications due July 23 2026) and the net-metering exemption through December 31 2026 provide limited relief.
The government plans to introduce ALMM-III in 2028, extending domestic-content requirements to solar wafers. Wood Mackenzie projects an additional 130 GW of cell capacity by 2029, requiring a 49 % CAGR from the 2026 baseline of 88 GW.
