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NOAA Forecasts “Super” El Niño, 69% Chance Record

8/16/2026

Summary

NOAA Forecasts El Niño

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives >90% chance of an El Niño this fall-winter and 69% chance of record-breaking since 1950.
Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures are 2 °C above average, indicating a “super” El Niño.
The Relative Oceanic Niño Index is forecast at 2.5–2.6 °C above normal, a new record.
Researchers warn Chicago may be drier and warmer.
Higher Atlantic wind shear should suppress hurricanes, while El Niño’s effect on the polar vortex remains uncertain.

Summary

Hausfather Predicts Record

Researchers estimate the current El Niño could become the costliest, after past events caused $4.1 trillion in 1982-83 and $5.7 trillion in 1997-98 losses.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather projects a 95% chance that the super El Niño and human emissions will make 2027 the hottest year on record.
The analysis says each strong El Niño adds roughly a decade of heat to the climate system, amplifying the temperature spike from greenhouse-gas warming.

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NOAA Forecasts El Niño

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives >90% chance of an El Niño this fall-winter and 69% chance of record-breaking since 1950.
Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures are 2 °C above average, indicating a “super” El Niño.
The Relative Oceanic Niño Index is forecast at 2.5–2.6 °C above normal, a new record.
Researchers warn Chicago may be drier and warmer.
Higher Atlantic wind shear should suppress hurricanes, while El Niño’s effect on the polar vortex remains uncertain.

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