Home Depot’s Upcoming Earnings Amid a Sluggish Housing Market

This week’s earnings season will feature Home Depot’s quarterly report, with analysts watching commentary from its rivals Lowe’s and luxury builder Toll Brothers. The broader housing sector is expected to shape investor sentiment. The Commerce Department’s July housing-starts data showed a 19% month-over-month rise, driven entirely by multifamily construction, while single-family starts slipped 0.2%. The National Association of Realtors reported that June pending home sales fell 5.4%.

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Home Depot announced that CEO Ted Decker is on a leave of absence. The company indicated that senior vice president of U.S. stores Ann-Marie Campbell and chief financial officer Richard McPhail will jointly oversee CEO responsibilities until a permanent arrangement is disclosed.

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Bank of America analysts argue that Home Depot’s larger exposure to professional-customer (Pro) sales, relative to Lowe’s, should help offset weakness among DIY shoppers, and they project comparable-store growth for Home Depot to outpace Lowe’s for the remainder of the year. Morgan Stanley analysts, however, anticipate a largely uneventful earnings release, noting that any meaningful recovery would require lower mortgage rates—an external factor beyond management’s control. Street consensus, compiled by LSEG, forecasts revenue of $47.27 billion and earnings of $4.73 per share for the quarter.

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Even if Home Depot delivers results in line with expectations, the company’s performance is unlikely to shift broader market sentiment because the housing sector remains constrained by low inventory and elevated borrowing costs. The combination of limited supply and high rates continues to suppress affordability, reinforcing what analysts describe as one of the weakest housing markets in decades. Consequently, investors are focusing more on real-time management commentary than on the backward-looking housing data itself.

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The earnings call will also address anticipated tariff refunds, with analysts planning to assess how any profit boost from those refunds is reflected in the headline results. Absent a reduction in mortgage rates, analysts suggest that Home Depot’s near-term growth prospects will remain modest despite the interim leadership arrangement.

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