2027 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment Forecasts

New inflation data have led senior-advocacy groups and analysts to revise their 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) projections. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) now expects a 3.6 % increase, down from 3.8 %. AARP forecasts 3.5 %, and analyst Mary Johnson projects 3.4 %. All are based on the July CPI-W, which rose 3.4 % year-over-year. The Social Security Administration (SSA) will announce the official figure in October after the September CPI-W data are released.

NewsweekSocial Security COLA forecast rises to 3.6% for 2027 retirees The Record (New Jersey)Bloomberg

COLAs compare the average CPI-W for the third quarter with the same period a year earlier to preserve beneficiaries’ purchasing power. Recent adjustments have varied: 2023 = 8.7 %, 2022 = 5.9 %, 2025 = 2.5 %, 2024 = 3.2 %, and the 2026 increase that took effect in January was 2.8 %. The current forecasts would make 2027 the largest rise since 2023.

Social Security COLA forecast rises to 3.6% for 2027 retirees

• Average benefit: $2,071 per month (CBS News).

The Record (New Jersey)

• Projected increase:

The Record (New Jersey)

• 3.6 % COLA -> about $75 more per month, raising the average to ~$2,146.

The Record (New Jersey)

• 3.5 % COLA -> about $73 more per month.

The Record (New Jersey)

• 3.4 % COLA -> about $70 more per month.

The Record (New Jersey)

• Beneficiaries: ~68.5 million receive retirement, survivor, or spousal benefits.

Newsweek

TSCL executive director Shannon Benton said “inflation’s volatility” complicates forecasting and noted seniors feel price changes in groceries, pharmacy items, insurance premiums, and rent.

The Record (New Jersey)

Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau and former Goldman Sachs analyst, said the softer July CPI-W nudges expectations toward the lower end of the range, though August and September data could still push the figure higher. He warned a higher COLA could be offset by rising Medicare Part B premiums deducted from checks.

Newsweek

Mary Johnson highlighted that the July report showed modest cooling, prompting groups to trim projections, yet the forecast remains above historical averages.

The Record (New Jersey)

• Forecast percentages: TSCL 3.6 %, AARP 3.5 %, Johnson 3.4 %.

Newsweek

• Dollar impact estimates: TSCL’s $69.75 increase versus CBS News’s $75 estimate for a 3.6 % COLA.

Newsweek

• Final determination: SSA has not released the official figure; the range could shift as August and September CPI-W data are incorporated.

Newsweek

• “Seniors don't experience inflation as a percentage on a chart. They experience it at the grocery store, at the pharmacy, in their insurance premiums and when they pay the rent. That's why the size of the COLA matters, but so does how accurately it reflects their real-world expenses.” — Shannon Benton, TSCL

Newsweek

• “If the CPI-W continues on the same downward path, however, the COLA could end up a lot lower still.” — Nic Puckrin, Coin Bureau

Newsweek

The SSA will release the official 2027 COLA in October, after the September CPI-W data are compiled. The adjustment will be applied to benefits beginning in January 2027, and stakeholders will monitor the remaining third-quarter inflation data for any shifts that could alter the projected range.

Social Security COLA forecast rises to 3.6% for 2027 retirees