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NOAA Warns El Niño Likely Exceeds 1950 Records This Fall

8/17/2026

36 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

CPC of NOAA says a very strong El Niño has over a 90% chance this fall.
CPC and NOAA give a 69% chance the Oct-Dec 2026 El Niño will exceed all events since 1950.
July sea-surface temps were 1.4 °C above average, prompting a forecasted runoff-on-neutral-index of 2.5-2.6 °C.
NOAA links the El Niño to a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, which Lindsey Long says raises chances of a wetter winter in North Carolina.

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Story summary

CPC of NOAA says a very strong El Niño has over a 90% chance this fall.
CPC and NOAA give a 69% chance the Oct-Dec 2026 El Niño will exceed all events since 1950.
July sea-surface temps were 1.4 °C above average, prompting a forecasted runoff-on-neutral-index of 2.5-2.6 °C.
NOAA links the El Niño to a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, which Lindsey Long says raises chances of a wetter winter in North Carolina.