Public Overestimates Minority Involvement in Homicides, Study Finds

A YouGov survey of 1,800 adults in England and Wales examined how the public estimates the ethnicity and nationality of offenders. Respondents believed that 55 % of convicted killers were from an ethnic minority, whereas official statistics show the true share is 35 %. They also estimated that 45 % of homicides were committed by white people, compared with the actual 64 %. Similar gaps appeared for foreign-national offenders: the public guessed 25 % of the prison population were foreign nationals, while the real figure is 12 %. For sexual offences, respondents thought 30 % were committed by foreigners, but the correct proportion is 15 %.

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• Homicide perpetrators: 55 % perceived minority ethnicity vs. 35 % actual.

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• White homicide perpetrators: 45 % perceived vs. 64 % actual.

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• Foreign-national prisoners: 25 % perceived vs. 12 % actual.

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• Foreign-national sexual offences: 30 % perceived vs. 15 % actual.

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• Two-tier justice belief: 52 % thought minorities received different sentencing (29 % saw it as more lenient, 23 % as harsher).

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• Personal victimisation: Median public estimate 27 % vs. actual 9.7 % of people experiencing crime in 2024-2025.

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He noted that emotional concerns amplify perceived scales of problems, and that supporters of the Reform Party—who express higher anxiety about immigration and diversity—are especially prone to over-estimate minority and foreign-national crime involvement. Duffy added that media and political messaging that highlight isolated incidents can reinforce these misperceptions. He also observed that age, rather than ethnicity, shapes respondents’ estimates: younger adults (Gen Z) placed the white share of homicide convictions at 58 %, while baby boomers estimated it at 35 %.

The Guardian

The study suggests that inflated beliefs about minority and foreign-national offending may erode confidence in the criminal-justice system, even though evidence does not support claims of a “two-tier” system. Misaligned perceptions could prompt calls for policy changes that are “not necessary or effective,” according to Duffy, potentially diverting attention from evidence-based interventions.

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• “Our misperceptions are more of a general emotional reaction than careful study of the facts – we’re sending messages about what’s worrying us.” — Prof Bobby Duffy, of King’s College

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