Trump’s Gubernatorial Endorsements Face a Crucial Test in Florida and Wyoming

President Donald Trump has backed 312 Republican primary candidates in the 2026 cycle, according to Ballotpedia. Of those whose contests have concluded, 97 % have won their primaries, and all 170 congressional candidates he endorsed had won as of July 10. In gubernatorial races his influence appears limited: Politico notes he backed 17 open-seat Republican governor hopefuls this year, of whom ten have won and four—Randy Feenstra (Iowa), Pamela Evette (South Carolina), Burt Jones (Georgia) and Mike Lindell (Minnesota)—have lost.

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In Florida, Trump endorsed U.S. Representative Byron Donalds, who leads a Quantus Insights poll conducted July 27-29 with 49.6 % support, more than three times the 15.7 % for second-place Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins. Investors James Fishback and former House Speaker Paul Renner trail with 12.4 % and lower shares. The Republican primary is scheduled for August 18, with the general election set for November 3.

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Wyoming’s GOP primary features state Senator Eric Barlow, retired Marine Corps Colonel Brent Bien, rodeo-production professional Curt Blake, and Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, whom Trump endorsed before she announced her campaign. Barlow has raised over $1.5 million (WyoFile), Degenfelder about $1.3 million, and Bien just over $201,000. A poll released by Barlow’s campaign shows him at 42 % support, Degenfelder at 19 %, and Bien at 14 %.

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Brent Bien emphasized his campaign’s independence, stating, “President Trump is free to endorse whomever he chooses. I have made a deliberate choice throughout this campaign not to seek endorsements from any elected officials—the only endorsement I seek is from the people of Wyoming.”

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• “Governors are an entirely different type of politician,” — Justin Vaughn, professor of political science, Coastal Carolina University

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• “Our campaign has stayed focused on conservative leadership, limited government, and putting Wyoming first—not on the endorsement fight. Alongside the thousands of supporters standing with us, I remain confident in our message and the broad support we are seeing across the state as we head into the primary,” — Brent Bien

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• “In Florida, Donalds is the clear favorite. The polling has consistently put him well ahead of the field, so a loss would be an incredible and unexpected upset. Wyoming is much harder to call,” — Justin Vaughn, professor of political science, Coastal Carolina University

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