Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Rating Falls to 33% Amid Prolonged Iran Conflict
8/18/2026, 7:48:04 AM
Core Event: Approval Rating Hits Historic Low
A Reuters/Ipsos poll scheduled for release on August 17 found that 33 percent of U.S. adults approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 64 percent disapprove. The survey of 1,166 respondents carries a ±3-percentage-point margin of error. This approval level ties the lowest point of Trump’s first term in December 2017 and marks the lowest rating recorded during his second term.
Background: U.S. War with Iran and Economic Fallout
In February 2026, President Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran in coordination with Israel, initiating a war that has disrupted global oil flows. The conflict has driven U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, up from under $3 just days before the war began, and has contributed to a sharp rise in overall energy costs.
Data & Statistics
- Approval/Disapproval: 33 % approve, 64 % disapprove (Reuters/Ipsos).
- Disapproval Trend: Disapproval rose to 58 % in the weeks preceding the war (Reuters/Ipsos).
- Energy Prices: Consumer Price Index data show energy prices were 14.7 % higher year-over-year in the most recent month, with a 23.5 % peak in May.
- Gasoline Costs: The American Automobile Association reported gasoline prices were nearly one-third higher than a year earlier and above $4 per gallon throughout the summer.
- War Duration Outlook: 80 % of respondents expect the U.S.–Iran conflict to continue for an extended period; this includes 87 % of Democrats and 71 % of Republicans. Only 16 % believe the war will end within a few weeks.
- Economic Stewardship Preference: Voters favor Democrats as better managers of the economy (38 %) over Republicans (35 %), the first such lead in about a decade.
Official Statements & Responses
President Trump initially pledged that the Iran conflict would be resolved “in a few weeks.” Throughout the war, Trump has alternated between threats of further escalation and assertions that a peace deal is imminent, maintaining that the military action is the only way to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Political Implications
The war’s economic strain has heightened Republican anxiety about retaining their slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3 elections. Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 66 % chance that Democrats will retake the House and a 45 % chance of gaining the Senate, up three points for the Senate race from a month earlier. Poll respondents also view Democrats as better equipped to manage the cost of living, a perception that could influence voter decisions in the upcoming midterms.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
All cited sources consistently report the 33 % approval figure, the 64 % disapproval rate, and the same general trends in public opinion and economic impact. No substantive discrepancies were identified among the available reports.
