Full Breakdown
Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming primaries could shape control of Congress in 2026
8/18/2026, 7:59:18 PM
Core contests and national stakes
On August 18 2026 voters in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming will cast ballots in primaries that analysts say may determine which party controls the Senate and the House. The most closely watched races are:
- Alaska U.S. Senate – incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan versus Democratic former congresswoman Mary Peltola, with a second Republican, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., also on the ballot.
- Florida governor – Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) faces a field that includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, investor James Fishback and former speaker Paul Renner.
- Wyoming governor – Superintendent Megan Degenfelder competes with former bull-rider Curt Blake, state Sen. Eric Barlow and ex-Marine Brent Bien.
Background & context
Alaska uses a nonpartisan primary: all candidates appear on a single ballot and the top four advance to a ranked-choice general election, a system created after Ballot Measure 2 in 2020.
Florida’s legislature redrew its congressional districts in early 2026, reducing the Democratic delegation from eight to four seats and forcing several incumbents into new districts.
Wyoming’s 2026 elections feature a wholesale turnover: Governor Mark Gordon, U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis and Rep. Harriet Hageman are all retiring, opening the governor’s mansion, a Senate seat and a House seat.
Timeline
| Date (status) | Event |
|---|---|
| June 1 2023 (occurred) | Sen. Dan Sullivan speaks with reporters in Washington (photo). |
| July 3 2026 (occurred) | Dan Sullivan, the candidate sharing the incumbent’s name, talks with a reporter in Petersburg, Alaska. |
| August 18 2026 (scheduled) | Primary elections in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming. |
Data & statistics
- Fundraising: Mary Peltola has raised roughly $18.5 million, about $6.8 million more than Dan Sullivan.
- Polling: An Alaska Survey Research poll (March 2026) shows Peltola at 46.4 % and Sullivan at 40.9 % among likely primary voters.
- Endorsements: President Donald Trump has publicly backed Dan Sullivan, Byron Donalds, Megan Degenfelder and Harriet Hageman.
- Campaign spending: Super-PACs have poured > $2 million into Alaska’s Senate race.
Official statements & responses
- Incumbent Senator Sullivan accused Daniel J. Sullivan of being a “Democratic plant” intended to confuse voters.
- Governor Ron DeSantis has not endorsed any candidate in the GOP gubernatorial primary and privately expressed concerns about Byron Donalds to Trump.
Criticism & opposition
- Former Rep. Cory Mills, under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, has been rebuked by Governor DeSantis, who said he would not back Mills.
Conflicting reports & gaps
- Polling data for Alaska’s Senate race varies: the March poll shows Peltola ahead, while other outlets have not released comparable numbers.
- No definitive information is available on how many of the four Alaska primary winners will be the two Dan Sullivans, creating uncertainty about voter confusion.
Verbatim quotes
- “I would not be in this race if Ron DeSantis could run for a third term because Ron DeSantis is the greatest governor in Florida history,” — James Fishback, investor
What’s next
- The four Alaska Senate primary winners will face each other in a November ranked-choice election.
- Florida’s gubernatorial primary winner will become the Republican nominee for the November race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.
- Wyoming’s governor and Senate nominees will appear on the November ballot, with the Senate seat expected to remain Republican.
